Donald Trump, the 47th President of the USA – Ukraine’s fears and hopes

Donald Trump, as the 47th president of the United States, raises both fears and hopes in Ukraine. Although Kyiv was skeptical about Trump’s previous term, disappointment with Joe Biden’s policies has led to greater openness towards the new US leadership. Ukrainians expect that Trump, attached to his image as a strong leader, will take more decisive action against Russia. At the same time, his ambiguous declarations, volatility in decisions and a possible rapprochement with the Kremlin are causing concern. As a result, Ukraine is forced to balance between hope for further support and fear of a potential “trading away” of its interests.

The king is dead, long live the king. In 2020, Ukraine welcomed Joe Biden’s election victory with optimism and high expectations, and Donald Trump’s departure with relief. Officially, the Ukrainian authorities took a reserved stance towards the American elections, but Trump’s previous presidency (2017-2021) was assessed as unfavorable from the point of view of Ukraine’s interests. Therefore, Joe Biden’s victory was welcomed with great expectations (‘IEŚ Commentaries’, No. 315). The 2024 US elections were also accompanied by Ukrainian concerns that Trump does not understand Russia and the motives behind its actions, and that he may deprive Ukraine of support for his own short-term benefits. At the same time, disappointment with the Biden administration’s policy was becoming increasingly visible, which, according to both the Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian society, supported their fight against Russian aggression in a conservative manner, de facto preventing Ukraine from taking the initiative, additionally imposing restrictions, e.g. on attacking targets on Russian territory. This disappointment grew as, towards the end of Biden’s term, his administration representatives publicly emphasized, for their own image and political purposes, that they had greatly supported Ukraine and contributed to the imposition of sanctions on Russia, while blaming the Ukrainian side exclusively for any failures. In Kyiv, opinions emerged that Kamala Harris’ victory would in fact be merely a continuation of Biden’s policy, and in addition, in the face of a confrontation with Congress – and such a situation had already caused months of stalemate in the context of support for Ukraine. In turn, Trump as president would have the power to make decisions and act – although his intentions regarding Ukraine remained unknown. As a result, the authorities in Kyiv have been reserved in commenting on American statements about Ukraine, trying to send signals about their readiness to cooperate with Trump as well – this was one of the goals of Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan” presented in October 2024 (it mentioned, among other things, Ukrainian raw material resources as a kind of “bait” for Trump).

Compared to the 2020 elections, the stakes have also changed: back then, it was about Ukraine’s international image and the state of U.S.-Ukrainian relations; now, the stakes are the issue of ending a protracted, devastating war. Ukrainians are also aware that the United States is a strategic partner of Ukraine, crucial to its future (especially as disappointment with Europe is also growing). The US elections and all of Trump’s statements were therefore followed very closely on the Dnieper. Significantly, Ukrainians are less skeptical of Trump than many Europeans. 37% of them believe that this is a good choice for the US (10% think otherwise), 33% that he will have a positive impact on the situation in the world (18% disagree), and 26% that it is also a good choice for Ukraine (20% disagree)[1].

The political and social situation in Ukraine. Society remains divided and increasingly diverse in its assessments of the future and the situation in the country. In December 2024, 45% of Ukrainians said that Trump could bring an end to the war (14% had the opposite opinion), but 40% had no opinion or believed that nothing would change. In turn, only 23% indicated that a possible agreement with Russia would be beneficial for Ukraine – 31% thought the opposite, and the rest did not form a clear opinion. The deterioration of moods is also evidenced by the fact that since 2022, the percentage of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to Russia has increased from 10% to 32%, and already 52% of respondents want the war to end as soon as possible through negotiations. It is worth emphasising that in public discourse there is practically no more talk of “victory” or “1991 borders” – the debate is dominated by the economic situation, political and corruption scandals, or the energy crisis. However, the majority of Ukrainian citizens (45%) still believe that 2025 will be better than 2024 (27% say worse). Another side effect of the US elections is the activation of the Ukrainian opposition, which puts Zelensky in a difficult situation: concessions to Trump (and Russia) will expose him to accusations of treason, while a tough stance will expose him to accusations of ruining relations with a strategic ally. There is also more and more criticism towards the authorities and discussions about the possible holding of elections, which have been suspended due to martial law (the last ones were held in 2019).

Concerns. In the opinion of both the authorities and the Ukrainian public, Donald Trump does not understand either the origins and nature of Russia’s aggression or that Ukraine is fighting for survival. The fact that he has repeatedly opposed (as did his entourage) further aid for Ukraine is worrying. The situation is complicated by Trump’s tangled relations with Zelensky. The Ukrainian president’s visit to the US in November 2024 turned out to be a failure, and Zelensky was not invited to Trump’s inauguration. The prevailing belief is that the United States will focus primarily on domestic policy, which will not be beneficial for Ukraine. There are also concerns about Trump’s volatility, for example in relation to personnel decisions, which is important because the 47^th US president’s entourage is assessed much worse in Ukraine than he himself (Pete Hegseth, Elon Musk and Keith Kellogg, for example, raise great concerns). Since both Trump and his circle remain ambiguous and often express contradictory opinions on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, this creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and waiting. Trump’s reluctance to multilateral international cooperation is noticeable, hence the fear that he will focus on bilateral relations – including with Russia. This in turn could lead to an American-Russian agreement (without Ukraine’s participation), thanks to which Moscow would obtain, for example, a reduction in sanctions and use such an arrangement as a tactical pause to rebuild its economic and military potential in order to attack Ukraine again. It is clear in Ukraine that Vladimir Putin’s goal is to eliminate or subordinate Ukrainian statehood – in the opinion of Ukrainians, Russia is currently not willing to engage in any talks. The Kremlin assumes that it has both a military advantage (slowly but steadily pushing Ukrainian forces back) and a political advantage (over the wavering Western coalition). As a result, the end of the war will depend not on Washington’s decision, but on Moscow’s.

Hopes. Russia reacted unenthusiastically to Trump’s election victory – unlike in 2016. This raises hopes in Ukraine – first of all, that the new US president’s policy towards Russia will be the antithesis of Biden’s policy, which has become increasingly cautious and moderate over time. Trump does not care about Ukraine, but he does care about his own image as a strong, dominant leader. Ukraine therefore hopes that the United States under his leadership will be more willing to conduct policy from a ‘position of strength’ – also towards Russia. Showing weakness in relations with Russia would not only seriously damage America’s image, but also send a signal to China, which is the main strategic rival of the US and a kind of obsession for Trump. Hence the hope that the United States will continue to help Ukraine in order to force Putin to recognize the superiority of Donald Trump. It is recalled, often citing American media and opinions, that during Trump’s first presidential term, the Americans began to supply Ukraine with weapons and did not shy away from confrontation with Russia in Syria. It is also emphasized that Trump’s plans to increase fossil fuel extraction may prove to be an important instrument of pressure on Russia and its economy. In addition, elections to the US Congress will be held in 2026. Trump needs a spectacular success to strengthen the position of the Republicans before the elections – the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war may be useful in this context, if the US president can be convinced of it.

Conclusions. Donald Trump’s statements about Ukraine and Russia have stirred up a lot of controversy and emotion – the US president criticizes both Putin and Zelensky, fails to see the essence of Russian aggression, and formulates many, often contradictory, opinions and declarations regarding his plans to end the war. However, Kyiv is cautious in formulating its assessments and expectations, realizing that Putin will not talk to Ukraine and that its fate largely depends on the current US president. Therefore, one should be prepared for various scenarios, considering the fact that the development of US-Russian relations is difficult to predict. There are also more and more voices saying that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not a priority for the US and that Ukraine must come to terms with this fact. There are also no illusions that the war will end quickly, that it will be possible to regain territories seized by Russia, or that Ukraine will be accepted into NATO in the foreseeable future. There is a growing conviction, however, that before any talks between Trump and Putin, the Ukrainian authorities should start a dialogue with the US president. There is hope that US military and economic aid for Ukraine will not be suspended – however, this will not be unconditional and Ukraine must convince Donald Trump why it is important and why supporting it is in the interests of both the United States and the president himself.

[1] The data in the text come from research by the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Gallup Institute, the ‘Rating’ Sociological Group and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

[Photo Zuma Press / Forum]