IES Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1674

3 August 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Impact of Low Water Levels in the Danube on Electricity Generation in Europe

At the end of July 2026, record-low water levels in the Danube, combined with heatwaves and drought, constrained the operation of power plants in Central and South-Eastern Europe. The crisis demonstrated that even stable energy sources, including nuclear power plants, are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events and limited availability of water used for cooling. Within...

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Eastern Team

Komentarze IEŚ 1673

3 August 2026

Monika Pietraszkiewicz - Eastern Team

The Coalition of the Willing and changes in Europe’s security architecture: Implications for Central and Eastern Europe

On 13 July 2026, another summit of the so-called Coalition of the Willing was held in Paris. The consolidation of this format constitutes yet another indication of a changing approach to organising security in Europe. Flexible forms of cooperation bringing together states willing to undertake concrete military commitments are growing in importance, regardless of the formal...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1670

24 July 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine: the price of centralisation of power

The reshuffle of Ukraine’s government in July 2026 proved to be much more than a personnel change. The dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov triggered the largest political crisis since the beginning of the full-scale war, revealing the growing tensions between state efficiency and the logic of concentrating power in the presidential center. These events could have...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1669

23 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Neptun Deep Project and the Changing Architecture of the Natural Gas Market in South-Eastern Europe

Neptun Deep is one of the most important energy projects currently under development in the European part of the Black Sea. Its launch, planned for 2027, could significantly alter Romania’s position in the natural gas market. The project, implemented by OMV Petrom and Romgaz, is expected to increase domestic production, strengthen Romania’s energy security, and create new...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1656

8 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure

Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure are no longer limited to isolated sabotage or military operations; they are now producing measurable economic and organisational effects. A series of attacks on refineries, fuel depots, transhipment terminals, and elements of transmission infrastructure have led to reduced operations at some facilities, disruptions in...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1652

2 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

European Union Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas Supplies in the Context of the Security of Central European Countries

The entry into force of successive EU restrictions on imports of Russian natural gas is intended to complete the process of phasing out supplies from Russia and to permanently reshape the structure of the European market for this commodity. The REPowerEU regulation, adopted in early 2026, provides for a gradual phase-out of imports: from a ban on concluding new contracts, through...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1647

24 June 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Growing Importance as a “Security Provider”

The war with Russia has transformed not only the Ukrainian armed forces but also Ukraine’s position in the European security system. Thanks to the dynamic development of its defence industry, military technologies, and unique experience gained on the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself not as a recipient of Western aid, but as a partner capable of...

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Public History and Memory Politics Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1645

19 June 2026

Agata Tatarenko - Public History and Memory Politics Team

Why Are We Still Talking About the Visegrad Group? Hungary’s Proposal for Expanding Central European Cooperation

The Visegrad Group summit scheduled for 23 June 2026 in Budapest may mark the beginning of a new debate on the future of regional cooperation in Central Europe. While Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has announced plans to revive cooperation within V4, he has simultaneously proposed expanding the framework to include Austria, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia and possibly Germany....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1640

16 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Armenia after the Elections: A Strategic Pivot and Prospects for Peace

Elections in Armenia are most often portrayed from an international perspective as a contest between the pro-Western government and the pro-Russian opposition. Similarly, the prospects for restructuring the country’s security architecture and its long-term geostrategy are interpreted in this two-dimensional manner. Nevertheless, the outlook for further regional change is far...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1637

8 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Elections in Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan Remains in Power

On Sunday, 7 June, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party, the Civil Contract, securing victory for the third time in a row. This result is likely to mean a continuation of the political course adopted by Armenia in recent years, in both foreign and domestic policy. Nevertheless, the results confirm deep social polarisation,...

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