IEŚ Commentaries

Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1000

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on crude oil supplies to Bulgaria and Romania

The Russian-Ukrainian war has reoriented the refining sector in the Central European region, including Bulgaria and Romania. The crude oil processing plants operating in these countries had for years imported a large amount of crude oil from the Russian Federation. The change in international conditions has contributed to the activation of efforts to diversify crude oil supply...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 993

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Uncertain future of Skulte LNG terminal project

There have been efforts in Latvia to build an LNG terminal in Skulte since 2016, but recent decisions by the government in Riga make the realisation of the investment uncertain. Even the damage in early October 2023 to the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the gas system of Estonia and Finland, has not changed the Latvian government’s approach to the Skulte LNG terminal....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 990

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Middle Eastern problems of Ukraine

Although the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not significantly inhibit Western, especially American, military aid to Ukraine, it is in a difficult position. By supporting Israel, it will become the object of criticism from the Arab world – which Russia will use for propaganda purposes. By not supporting Israel, it risks deterioration of relations with Western...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 984

Andrzej Szabaciuk - Eastern Team

Russian mobilisation in occupied areas of Ukraine

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Russian authorities have pursued a repressive policy towards the residents of the areas occupied by Russian forces. This policy initially affected the residents of Crimea and the controlled parts of Donbas in 2014, and since 2022, has extended to parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. One manifestation of these actions...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 987

Piotr Oleksy - Eastern Team

Romania strengthens cooperation with Ukraine

Romania and Ukraine have reached a level of mutual understanding hitherto unknown. The countries have managed to arrange relations on the most sensitive issues such as the problem of agricultural imports and the rights of national minorities. This provides the basis for the development of a stable security architecture in this part of the Black Sea region. The effect of the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 978

Piotr Oleksy - Eastern Team

The enlargement imperative. The EU between historical chance and great risk (part 2)

The discussion on the enlargement of the European Union has gained new momentum. The admission of new members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is now being presented as a strategic necessity. This has reinforced expectations among candidate countries and sparked debate about the indispensability of institutional reforms among member states. Key decisions on enlargement...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 977

Piotr Oleksy - Eastern Team

The enlargement imperative. The EU between historical chance and great risk (part 1)

The discussion on the enlargement of the European Union has gained new momentum. The admission of new members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is now being presented as a strategic necessity. This has reinforced expectations among candidate countries and sparked debate about the indispensability of institutional reforms among member states. Key decisions on enlargement...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 976

Michał Paszkowski | Szczepan Czarnecki - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Reorganization of the gas sector in Czechia

In Czechia, under the influence of the Russian Federation’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, there has been a change in the operation of energy companies, which are supposed not only to meet business objectives but also to strengthen the state’s energy security. In this context, in the past few months, we have seen the implementation of two acquisitions by companies wholly owned...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 968

Andrzej Szabaciuk - Eastern Team

The Ukrainian Authorities’ Policy towards Internally Displaced Persons following the Invasion by the Russian Federation

The Russian attack on Ukraine resulted in one of the most significant humanitarian crises in Europe since World War II. In its aftermath, millions of Ukrainians were compelled to abandon their former places of residence and seek refuge within or outside the country. Ukraine is making efforts to provide social support to those affected by the war. However, due to the limited...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 965

Andrzej Szabaciuk - Eastern Team

Russian War Mobilisation One Year After Vladimir Putin’s Decree

On 21 September 2023, a year had passed since the announcement of Vladimir Putin’s decree on mobilization, which remains in effect to this day. This decree led to the deployment of over 400,000 Russian conscripts to Ukraine, while an even larger cohort chose to leave the country due to apprehensions of front-line deployment. In retrospect, it is imperative to acknowledge that...

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Balkan Team, Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 955

Michał Paszkowski | Spasimir Domaradzki - Balkan Team, Baltic Team

Bulgaria: technical government settlements on natural gas deal

In Bulgaria, the new government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov has ordered an investigation into the 2023 Bulgarian-Turkish agreement, which provides access for Bulgargaz to LNG terminals in Turkey and the Turkish transmission network. According to the government’s position, the agreement between Bulgargaz and BOTAŞ, which was concluded for a period of 13 years, is...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 952

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

The development of military cooperation as part of multinational units among Visegrad countries (V4) in 2023

The geopolitical location of the Visegrad Group countries at the centre of NATO’s eastern flank makes them an important keystone in the security processes of the Central and Eastern European region. The military dimension of the V4 cooperation has been its key element since the platform’s inception when the countries coordinated their efforts to join NATO. As a result of the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 946

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Consequences of the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin

The failed coup by the Wagnerites showed the weakness of the Russian state and personally humiliated Vladimir Putin. From his point of view, eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin was necessary. In this way, he wanted to show who was in control of the situation and warn potential rebels. In the short term, this may produce results, but in the long term, the political losses may be serious....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 941

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 3)

The Spring 2023 economic forecasts published by the European Commission indicate that, despite a gradual improvement in the stability of the public finance sector, many Central European countries will continue to experience budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP. The largest budget deficits will be observed in Slovakia and Poland. Despite these challenges, both economies will...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 939

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 2)

In 2022, among eleven Central European countries, five of them had budget deficits that exceeded the agreed limit of 3% of GDP. According to the latest data from Eurostat, the highest budget deficits, and consequently, the greatest challenges for the stability of the public finance sector, were recorded in Hungary and Romania. Hungary, thanks to its expansive fiscal policy,...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 937

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Azerbaijan’s growing role in ensuring the energy security of Central European countries

The Russian Federation’s armed attack on Ukraine has changed the perception of energy-exporting countries. In the past, Russia played a key role in providing crude oil and natural gas supplies to Central European countries, however, the war has forced countries in the region to seek alternative suppliers. Under these conditions, Azerbaijan has been growing in importance for many...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 930

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Underground natural gas storage facilities in Ukraine

Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage facilities, together with its extensive pipeline network, have played an important role in ensuring the availability of natural gas in Europe over the years. However, the importance of Ukrainian infrastructure was reduced as a result of the systematic reduction of natural gas supplies from east to west following the Russian...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 924

Marlena Gołębiowska | Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Lithuanian strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region

On July 5, the Lithuanian government adopted the Strategy for the Indo-Pacific region prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The document was developed in response to the need to ensure security and strengthen Lithuania’s international position as well as to tighten economic cooperation with partners from this region. At the same time, in the Strategy, Lithuania once again...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 922

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Lithuanian security and the Wagner Group in Belarus

As a result of the Wagner Group mercenaries arriving in Belarus, fears have grown in Lithuania that these mercenaries may be used by the Belarusian regime, among other things, to support migrants illegally crossing the Lithuanian border. Therefore, the discussion on the introduction of stricter entry rules for Belarusian citizens has resumed. Currently, in the opinion of the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 916

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 1)

During deep recessions such as those triggered recently by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, ensuring stability in the public finance sector is not an easy task. In EU countries, this stability is associated with maintaining budget deficits and public debt below the levels required by the Maastricht criteria. In 2022, many Central European countries...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 917

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Diesel supplies to the Western Balkan countries in the new international environment

For years, Russia has played an important role in supplying liquid fuels by sea to all of Europe, especially diesel fuel, a key product in the transportation industry. The Russian Federation’s armed attack on Ukraine in 2022 led to changes in commodity markets, affecting the volume of liquid fuel imports to the Western Balkan countries. Due to the new market conditions,...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 915

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Serbia activates natural gas supply efforts

Serbia has, for years, been dependent on natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation, and the resulting political influence has had consequences for its energy policy and the presence of Russian capital in key energy companies. In recent months, however, there has been a noticeable modification of the Belgrade government’s position on the importance of Russia in ensuring...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 902

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Economic growth slowdown and future prospects: an analysis of forecasts for Lithuania

Lithuania’s pursuit of geopolitical stabilization and the effective use of financial resources is crucial for its economic recovery. The European Commission’s forecasts for 2023 suggest a slowdown in economic growth due to persistent inflation. However, there are more optimistic prospects for 2024, which anticipate greater economic growth due to lower inflation, increased...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 887

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

The path to stability: the future of Latvia in the context of economic forecasts for the years 2023-2024

Despite having to grapple with issues such as the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine or – earlier – the COVID-19 pandemic, Latvia’s economy has demonstrated its ability to adapt and maintain growth dynamics. Notwithstanding the anticipated slowdown in export growth due to a decrease in foreign demand, the second half of 2023 is likely to see a significant...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 891

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Hybrid Counter-offensive

At the turn of May and June 2023, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive. Aware of the high stakes and high expectations, both from the public and from Western partners, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to tone down excessive optimism. At the same time, hybrid instruments were also used to increase the chances of a counter-offensive by destabilising and causing chaos in Russia....

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