Publisher: Instytut Europy Środkowej
ISSN: 2657-6996
  • Beata Surmacz
  • Tomasz Stępniewski
  • Agnieszka Zajdel
  • Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik
  • Jakub Olchowski
  • Konrad Pawłowski
  • Agata Tatarenko

IEŚ Commentaries

Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1071
- Baltic Team

Natural gas demand decline in the Baltic countries in 2023

The Baltic countries have recorded another consecutive year of declining natural gas demand in 2023. Initially, such a situation was related to the COVID-19 pandemic and high commodity prices on exchanges in Europe (the result of price manipulation by Russia in 2021 and then the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022). It is now expected that the projected economic growth in 2024 and the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1055
- Baltic Team

Crude oil terminals in Central European countries in the era of the shift away from Russian commodities

There are six crude oil terminals in the Central European countries of the European Union, supplying a total of sixteen refineries, several of which are located outside the EU. Due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, these terminals have been unloading tankers from countries that have not previously supplied crude oil to these refineries, or if they have, sporadically, in 2023....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1035
- Baltic Team

LNG terminals in Central Europe: importance and operation

There are several LNG regasification terminals in Central European countries, aimed at securing natural gas supplies from various directions. In the context of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the importance of these terminals has definitely increased. At present, they are a key tool in efforts to diversify the sources and directions of natural gas supplies, especially...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1034
- Visegrad Team

Airspace violations in Central and Eastern European countries in the context of the war in Ukraine

Due to the outbreak of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there have been several incidents involving air and missile threats, as well as air defence systems in the airspace of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). Certainly, some of these incidents have been intentional provocations by Russia against NATO, Ukraine or Moldova, aimed at pursuing a specific...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1027
- Baltic Team

Natural gas and crude oil markets in Central European countries in 2023

Central European countries in 2023 were taking active steps to strengthen energy security, which was a difficult process. A key strategic objective was to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons supplies from the Russian Federation by initiating new investments and continuing those already underway. Importantly, there are still countries on the continent that cooperate with Russia in...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1024

Year 2023: The State of the Central European Economies

In 2023, five Central European economies (Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Latvia, and the Czech Republic) are expected to end the year in a state of recession, while four (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) are facing double-digit average annual inflation. Furthermore, as many as seven countries in the region are projected to record budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1006
- Eastern Team

Nothing New in the East? Consequences of the Slowdown of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

The lack of success in the counteroffensive has sparked a lively debate in Ukraine regarding the situation on the front and the overall state of the country. The prolonged war of attrition is advantageous for the Russian Federation, which has the necessary resources to continue its aggression. Russia counts on weakening Kyiv as well as tiring its allies and reducing the scale of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1000
- Baltic Team

Impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on crude oil supplies to Bulgaria and Romania

The Russian-Ukrainian war has reoriented the refining sector in the Central European region, including Bulgaria and Romania. The crude oil processing plants operating in these countries had for years imported a large amount of crude oil from the Russian Federation. The change in international conditions has contributed to the activation of efforts to diversify crude oil supply...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 994

International Competitiveness of Economies: The Baltic States

Competitiveness is a key element of the European Union’s development strategy. In all the Baltic states, a significant weakening of competitiveness is currently observed, primarily due to external factors over which these countries, as both small and open economies, have limited influence. At the same time, however, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to invest in the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 993
- Baltic Team

Uncertain future of Skulte LNG terminal project

There have been efforts in Latvia to build an LNG terminal in Skulte since 2016, but recent decisions by the government in Riga make the realisation of the investment uncertain. Even the damage in early October 2023 to the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the gas system of Estonia and Finland, has not changed the Latvian government’s approach to the Skulte LNG terminal....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 991
- Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Defence Minister and His Entourage

In September 2023, a large-scale reorganisation of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine began. In the view of the authorities, the appointment of Rustem Umerov, an experienced economist and politician, as Minister of Defence was intended to ensure more effective management of the department and stem the tide of criticism against it. Subsequent personnel changes at the ministry may...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 990
- Eastern Team

Middle Eastern problems of Ukraine

Although the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not significantly inhibit Western, especially American, military aid to Ukraine, it is in a difficult position. By supporting Israel, it will become the object of criticism from the Arab world – which Russia will use for propaganda purposes. By not supporting Israel, it risks deterioration of relations with Western...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 984
- Eastern Team

Russian mobilisation in occupied areas of Ukraine

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Russian authorities have pursued a repressive policy towards the residents of the areas occupied by Russian forces. This policy initially affected the residents of Crimea and the controlled parts of Donbas in 2014, and since 2022, has extended to parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. One manifestation of these actions...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 987
- Eastern Team

Romania strengthens cooperation with Ukraine

Romania and Ukraine have reached a level of mutual understanding hitherto unknown. The countries have managed to arrange relations on the most sensitive issues such as the problem of agricultural imports and the rights of national minorities. This provides the basis for the development of a stable security architecture in this part of the Black Sea region. The effect of the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 978
- Eastern Team

The enlargement imperative. The EU between historical chance and great risk (part 2)

The discussion on the enlargement of the European Union has gained new momentum. The admission of new members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is now being presented as a strategic necessity. This has reinforced expectations among candidate countries and sparked debate about the indispensability of institutional reforms among member states. Key decisions on enlargement...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 977
- Eastern Team

The enlargement imperative. The EU between historical chance and great risk (part 1)

The discussion on the enlargement of the European Union has gained new momentum. The admission of new members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is now being presented as a strategic necessity. This has reinforced expectations among candidate countries and sparked debate about the indispensability of institutional reforms among member states. Key decisions on enlargement...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 976
| Szczepan Czarnecki - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Reorganization of the gas sector in Czechia

In Czechia, under the influence of the Russian Federation’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, there has been a change in the operation of energy companies, which are supposed not only to meet business objectives but also to strengthen the state’s energy security. In this context, in the past few months, we have seen the implementation of two acquisitions by companies wholly owned...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 973
- Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Demographic Challenges

Ukraine’s population began to decline long before February 2022. On the eve of the Russian invasion, it ranged from 34.5 to 37.4 million people. The armed conflict catastrophically accelerated the depopulation of the country and led to an even greater deformation of the age and gender structure of the population. Alongside numerous irreparable human losses, mobilisation,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 968
- Eastern Team

The Ukrainian Authorities’ Policy towards Internally Displaced Persons following the Invasion by the Russian Federation

The Russian attack on Ukraine resulted in one of the most significant humanitarian crises in Europe since World War II. In its aftermath, millions of Ukrainians were compelled to abandon their former places of residence and seek refuge within or outside the country. Ukraine is making efforts to provide social support to those affected by the war. However, due to the limited...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 965
- Eastern Team

Russian War Mobilisation One Year After Vladimir Putin’s Decree

On 21 September 2023, a year had passed since the announcement of Vladimir Putin’s decree on mobilization, which remains in effect to this day. This decree led to the deployment of over 400,000 Russian conscripts to Ukraine, while an even larger cohort chose to leave the country due to apprehensions of front-line deployment. In retrospect, it is imperative to acknowledge that...

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Balkan Team, Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 955
| Spasimir Domaradzki - Balkan Team, Baltic Team

Bulgaria: technical government settlements on natural gas deal

In Bulgaria, the new government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov has ordered an investigation into the 2023 Bulgarian-Turkish agreement, which provides access for Bulgargaz to LNG terminals in Turkey and the Turkish transmission network. According to the government’s position, the agreement between Bulgargaz and BOTAŞ, which was concluded for a period of 13 years, is...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 952
- Visegrad Team

The development of military cooperation as part of multinational units among Visegrad countries (V4) in 2023

The geopolitical location of the Visegrad Group countries at the centre of NATO’s eastern flank makes them an important keystone in the security processes of the Central and Eastern European region. The military dimension of the V4 cooperation has been its key element since the platform’s inception when the countries coordinated their efforts to join NATO. As a result of the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 946
- Eastern Team

Consequences of the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin

The failed coup by the Wagnerites showed the weakness of the Russian state and personally humiliated Vladimir Putin. From his point of view, eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin was necessary. In this way, he wanted to show who was in control of the situation and warn potential rebels. In the short term, this may produce results, but in the long term, the political losses may be serious....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 941
- Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 3)

The Spring 2023 economic forecasts published by the European Commission indicate that, despite a gradual improvement in the stability of the public finance sector, many Central European countries will continue to experience budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP. The largest budget deficits will be observed in Slovakia and Poland. Despite these challenges, both economies will...

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