Institute of Central Europe/IEŚ Commentaries
Publisher: Instytut Europy Środkowej
ISSN: 2657-6996
  • Beata Surmacz
  • Tomasz Stępniewski
  • Agnieszka Zajdel
  • Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik
  • Jakub Olchowski
  • Konrad Pawłowski
  • Agata Tatarenko

IEŚ Commentaries

Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IES Commentaries 846
| Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Preparations for the Three Seas Initiative Bucharest summit: 3SI countries in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine

On September 6-7, 2023, Romania will host a summit of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) which, for the second time, will be against the background of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Despite settling relations between 3SI and Ukraine during last year’s summit in Riga, [some] 3SI countries do not present a unified stance towards Russian aggression. Hungary has exhibited the most...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 845
- Eastern Team

Special Patriotic War

Victory Day celebrated on 9 May is still the most important holiday in Russia, and at the same time an important instrument of the Kremlin’s policy, both internally and internationally. The Moscow celebrations in 2023 and Vladimir Putin’s speech showed that Russia is in a very difficult military and economic situation. Despite this, Russia’s ruling elites intend to...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 838
- Eastern Team

Ukraine and China in the Face of the Russian Invasion

Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has been seeking greater involvement from China in resolving the conflict, hoping that this will stop Russian aggression. However, the Chinese government avoided direct contact with President Zelensky and spoke ambiguously about the causes of the war and Russia’s actions. Taking advantage of the situation, they are buying cheap Russian...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 829
- Baltic Team

Croatia plans to build a regional gas hub

Croatia is taking active steps to increase its participation in ensuring the energy security of Central European countries. A key tool will be the expansion of the LNG terminal on Krk Island, which is expected to eventually supply natural gas to many countries in the region from alternative sources to Russia. Expansion of the terminal and natural gas pipelines is extremely...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 834
- Eastern Team

The impact of the war on the dynamics of the political and social situation in Ukraine

Russian aggression affected the balance of political forces in Ukraine. Pro-Russian groups disappeared from the scene. Also, as long as the war continues, there will be no elections, perpetuating the current situation. At the same time, political conflicts and existing problems such as corruption and inefficiency of political elites are being revived. However, the morale of...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 832
- Eastern Team

Ukraine and Moldova: toward a viable partnership

The Russian invasion highlighted the importance of Ukrainian-Moldovan relations for the development and strategic situation of both countries. For Chisinau, Ukraine has become a key security guarantor. In turn, Kiev recognized the strategic importance of its neighbor in the military, social, transportation, and logistics spheres. At the same time, there have been signs of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 808
- Baltic Team

Bulgaria considers returning to construction of Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline

Bulgaria is considering a return to the construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline, which would allow greater diversification of crude oil supplies to the Burgas refinery. The project was initiated as early as 1993, at which time it was intended to increase exports of Russian crude oil to international markets. The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and sanctions imposed on the...

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Balkan Team, Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 807
| Jan Muś | Michał Paszkowski - Balkan Team, Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Serbia-Hungary pipeline: a new chapter in energy cooperation

Serbia has been taking active steps for several months to diversify the sources and directions of crude oil supplies to the country’s only operating refinery in Panchevo. Due to sanctions imposed on Russia, the plant is currently unable to import crude oil from that country. However, the government in Belgrade is in favor of building a pipeline linking Serbia and...

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Baltic Team

Komentarze IEŚ 753
- Baltic Team

Kazakhstan: questionable source of crude oil supply for Central European refineries

The entry into force on December 5, 2022 of European Union sanctions against Russia, which prevent the import of crude oil from that country by sea, has forced refiners in Europe, including those in Central Europe, to seek alternative grades, including from Kazakhstan. On one hand refineries in Germany are counting on crude oil supplies from that country, but the direction of...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 731
- Eastern Team

The Black Sea grain game

The agreement enabling the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports contributes to reducing the food deficit. This issue is also an element of the political game around the growing importance of the Black Sea, in which the beneficiaries are all parties, i.e. Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. The international position of Turkey, which plays an increasingly important role...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 717
- Visegrad Team

Slovakia: an unstable public support for Ukraine and the West

Survey research from July 2022. “How are you Slovakia?”, conducted by researchers from the research agencies MNFORCE, Seesame and the Slovak Academy of Sciences, shows that the majority of Slovaks support a victory for Russia rather than Ukraine in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, an earlier survey, conducted by the think tank Globsec, shows...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 711
- Baltic Team

The Orthodox Churches of the Moscow Patriarchate in the Baltic States’ attitude towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine

On May 18, 2022, the Lithuanian Prime Minister asked the Patriarch of Constantinople to separate the Lithuanian Orthodox Church from the Moscow Patriarchate. Then, on September 8, the Latvian Saeima adopted a law on the independence of the Latvian Orthodox Church. Moreover, on October 12, the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church was ordered by the Estonian government to condemn...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 712
- Baltic Team

Lithuanian solidarity with Ukraine

Lithuania has remained one of the leading countries in terms of support for Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion. It is measurable, counted in hundreds of millions of euros, military, humanitarian, and financial aid given to a war-torn state and the refugees fleeing from it. There is also a Lithuanian voice in the international arena against the aggressor, expressed...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 705
- Eastern Team

Chisinau’s Transnistrian Dilemma

The Moldovan authorities face a dilemma regarding their policy towards the separatist region on the left bank of the Dniester River. The new circumstances on the international scene resulting from Russian aggression against Ukraine mean that there is an increased possibility to exert pressure on the authorities of the separatist republic. A prompt resolution of the problem would...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 704
- Eastern Team

Credibility of international organizations in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (part 2)

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has contributed not only to the accelerated erosion of the international order but also to a decline in trust of international organizations. The limited effectiveness of key inter-state organizations, the controversial activities of some important non-governmental organizations, and Russia’s consistent disregard for international law may...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 700
- Eastern Team

Credibility of international organizations in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (part 1)

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has contributed not only to the accelerated erosion of the international order but also to a decline in trust in international organizations. The limited effectiveness of key inter-state organizations, the controversial activities of some important non-governmental organizations, and Russia’s consistent disregard for international...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 653
- Baltic Team

Unicorns at the Baltic Sea: Estonia is the forge of start-ups

Estonia is harvesting the crops were sowed over a quarter of a century ago as the Tiger Leap (est. Tiigrihüpe). It was an initiative aimed to expand infrastructure and develop citizens' skills in the field of digitization, with a focus on the education of the youngest. The generation of Estonians educated in such an environment is already on the labour market and are successfully...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 646
- Eastern Team

Russian propaganda attacks Polish-Ukrainian relations

In recent weeks, Russia has been conducting an intensive propaganda and disinformation campaign aimed at deteriorating relations between Poland and Ukraine. Warsaw is accused of, inter alia, striving to seize and subjugate the western part of Ukraine in the name of the idea of the “great Republic”. Poland is also presented as an irresponsible and Russophobic state, striving to...

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Balkan Team, Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 642
- Balkan Team, Baltic Team

EU sanctions against Russia and potential problems with Serbia crude oil supplies

The sixth package of sanctions against Russia introduced by the European Union in connection with the attack on Ukraine will have consequences for Serbian Pančevo refinery, owned by Russian companies. Deliveries to the plant are taking place via the Adria pipeline and the Omišalj oil terminal in Croatia, and the new sanctions prevent the unloading of Russian crude oil in EU...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 639
| Łukasz Lewkowicz - Baltic Team

The Three Seas Initiative after the Riga summit: a new status of cooperation with Ukraine and the support of the United States

On June 20-21, 2022, Latvia organized the 7th summit of The Three Seas Initiative (3SI). Riga emphasized the intra-EU and transatlantic dimension of the format. The first of them was reflected in the decision not to include Ukraine in the Three Seas Initiative, but to grant it a special status of a participating partner. The second is the declaration of the American support for...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 630
- Eastern Team

The War in Ukraine and Food Security in Regional and Global Perspective (part 1)

Overall 22 million tons of grain were blocked in Ukrainian ports as a result of Russia’s aggression and the suspension of Ukrainian agricultural exports by sea. This significantly reduced the ability of Ukrainian farmers to sell the 2021 grain harvest, while increasing the threat of global hunger, since almost half of all UN World Food Program deliveries come from Ukraine. The...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 615
- Eastern Team

Russian war crimes and their international context

Russia continues its policy of terror in Ukraine, which has been applied many times in other conflicts, committing murders, rapes, looting, deportations, and shelling civilian objects. International reactions are varied, which results, inter alia, from an opinion, supported by Russian propaganda, that the West has also committed war crimes. The punishment of Russian crimes will be...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 616
- Baltic Team

A decisive year for regional cooperation within the Council of the Baltic Sea States

Ministers of foreign affairs and other high-level representatives of the members of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) met on May 25, 2022, in Kristiansand, Norway, for the first CBSS Ministerial Session in nine years. A summary of Norway’s Presidency (July 2021-June 2022) and an assessment of the impact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having on the Baltic...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 613
| Łukasz Lewkowicz - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Slovakia: the game about crude oil supplies from Russia

In Slovakia, a debate has been going on for a long time about the possible imposition on crude oil supply embargo from Russia by the European Union countries. The Slovak government hopes to obtain an appropriate derogation period from these provisions. Technological and infrastructural reasons are indicated as the problem. The project of introducing a special tax on crude oil...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 605
| Hanna Bazhenova - Eastern Team

The War in Ukraine: Crimes against the Environment (part 1) 

During the three months of the war, 245 eco-crimes committed by the Russian army in the territory of Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Sea of Azov were documented. Rocket attacks caused large-scale fires in critical infrastructure, especially oil depots and chemical plants. This led to significant damage to ecosystems and pollutes the environment, reducing the populations of many...

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