IEŚ Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1694

4 September 2026

Spasimir Domaradzki - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

The introduction of the euro and inflation in Bulgaria

Nine months after the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria, inflation continues to follow an upward trend. The legal and institutional measures proposed by the government have so far failed to produce results. The sources of rising prices should be sought both in the unstable international situation and in the ineffective actions of Bulgarian institutions during the introduction...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1693

3 September 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

U.S. Sanctions and the Insolvency Proceedings of Romania’s Petrotel Refinery

Romania’s Petrotel refinery, owned by the Russian energy company Lukoil, entered into insolvency proceedings at the end of August 2026. The decision of the Ploiești Tribunal, which has jurisdiction over Prahova County, followed nearly a year of inactivity at the facility after Lukoil was placed under U.S. sanctions in the autumn of 2025. State supervision over the assets as...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1689

28 August 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan | Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Middle Corridor perspective: opportunities and challenges

After 2022, political momentum behind the development of the Middle Corridor gained pace. While it is a project with considerable potential in transport, economic and energy terms, its actual expansion and competitiveness are dependent on a multitude of challenges and risks. In the energy sphere, the corridor’s importance lies primarily in diversifying supply routes for...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1682

14 August 2026

Robert Rajczyk - Eastern Team

András Baka – the New President of Hungary

On August 2026, the National Assembly elected the 8th president of Hungary since 1990. András Baka will take office eight days after the election results are announced – on August 19th, the day before Hungary’s national holiday – St. Stephen’s Day (Szent István napja). The newly elected president’s term, according to the provisions of the 17th amendment to the...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1681

13 August 2026

Agata Domachowska - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

Serbia – United States: Strengthening bilateral relations

The inauguration of the US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue in July 2026 represents an important step in the development of bilateral relations since Aleksander Vučić came to power. The establishment of a permanent consultation mechanism indicates the readiness of both sides to strengthen cooperation in the fields of energy, security, new technologies, and science. At the same time,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1679

11 August 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Operation of refineries in Central Europe during a period of low water levels on the Danube

Low water levels on the Danube have caused logistical disruptions to fuel transportation in Central and South-Eastern Europe. Reduced barge loading capacity has forced some deliveries to be redirected to rail and road transport, increasing both costs and pressure on inventory levels. Despite these difficulties, the main refineries located along the Danube continue to operate...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1674

3 August 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Impact of Low Water Levels in the Danube on Electricity Generation in Europe

At the end of July 2026, record-low water levels in the Danube, combined with heatwaves and drought, constrained the operation of power plants in Central and South-Eastern Europe. The crisis demonstrated that even stable energy sources, including nuclear power plants, are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events and limited availability of water used for cooling. Within...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1673

29 July 2026

Jakub Bornio | Agata Tatarenko - Eastern Team

The Coalition of the Willing and changes in Europe’s security architecture: Implications for Central and Eastern Europe

On 13 July 2026, another summit of the so-called Coalition of the Willing was held in Paris. The consolidation of this format constitutes yet another indication of a changing approach to organising security in Europe. Flexible forms of cooperation bringing together states willing to undertake concrete military commitments are growing in importance, regardless of the formal...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1672

28 July 2026

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 3 – Finland and Romania

The examples of Finland and Romania demonstrate that natural ecosystems can serve multiple functions in security policy. In Finland, natural landscape elements have been integrated into defence planning, while in Romania, the Danube waterways can be used for military transport or to create alternative routes for exporting goods. While the potential of natural security...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1670

24 July 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine: the price of centralisation of power

The reshuffle of Ukraine’s government in July 2026 proved to be much more than a personnel change. The dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov triggered the largest political crisis since the beginning of the full-scale war, revealing the growing tensions between state efficiency and the logic of concentrating power in the presidential center. These events could have...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1669

23 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Neptun Deep Project and the Changing Architecture of the Natural Gas Market in South-Eastern Europe

Neptun Deep is one of the most important energy projects currently under development in the European part of the Black Sea. Its launch, planned for 2027, could significantly alter Romania’s position in the natural gas market. The project, implemented by OMV Petrom and Romgaz, is expected to increase domestic production, strengthen Romania’s energy security, and create new...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1668

22 July 2026

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

The Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 2 – Poland and the Baltic States

In recent years, the countries on NATO’s eastern flank have increasingly come to view the natural environment not only as an ecological resource but also as an element of security infrastructure. Peatlands, wetlands, and forest complexes play a particularly important role in Poland and the Baltic states, as they can support defence capabilities by limiting the mobility of a...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1666

17 July 2026

Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

NATO after the Ankara Summit: Deepening the Europeanisation of the Alliance amid Persistent Instability

The NATO Summit in Ankara, held on 7–8 July 2026, should be regarded as a moderate success. The principal directions of NATO’s evolution were maintained, with the gradual Europeanisation of the Alliance remaining the central element of this process. At the same time, the meeting confirmed that NATO continues to face structural challenges – both internal and external – that...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1664

15 July 2026

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 1 – Ukraine

The concept of the green border envisages the use of natural ecosystems as an element of a state’s security infrastructure. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated by both historical experience and the ongoing war in Ukraine, showing that wetlands, forests, and rivers can significantly constrain an adversary’s mobility, support defensive operations, and also serve as...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1656

8 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure

Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure are no longer limited to isolated sabotage or military operations; they are now producing measurable economic and organisational effects. A series of attacks on refineries, fuel depots, transhipment terminals, and elements of transmission infrastructure have led to reduced operations at some facilities, disruptions in...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1652

2 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

European Union Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas Supplies in the Context of the Security of Central European Countries

The entry into force of successive EU restrictions on imports of Russian natural gas is intended to complete the process of phasing out supplies from Russia and to permanently reshape the structure of the European market for this commodity. The REPowerEU regulation, adopted in early 2026, provides for a gradual phase-out of imports: from a ban on concluding new contracts, through...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1651

1 July 2026

Agata Tatarenko | Jakub Bornio - Eastern Team

V4 Summit in Gödöllő

After a hiatus of more than two years, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary met in Gödöllő (Hungary) on 23 June 2026 for a Visegrád Group summit. The resumption of high-level meetings is itself symbolically significant, as it marks the end of a period of political freeze in cooperation resulting from differences over policy towards...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1647

24 June 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Growing Importance as a “Security Provider”

The war with Russia has transformed not only the Ukrainian armed forces but also Ukraine’s position in the European security system. Thanks to the dynamic development of its defence industry, military technologies, and unique experience gained on the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself not as a recipient of Western aid, but as a partner capable of...

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Public History and Memory Politics Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1645

19 June 2026

Agata Tatarenko - Public History and Memory Politics Team

Why Are We Still Talking About the Visegrad Group? Hungary’s Proposal for Expanding Central European Cooperation

The Visegrad Group summit scheduled for 23 June 2026 in Budapest may mark the beginning of a new debate on the future of regional cooperation in Central Europe. While Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has announced plans to revive cooperation within V4, he has simultaneously proposed expanding the framework to include Austria, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia and possibly Germany....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1640

16 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Armenia after the Elections: A Strategic Pivot and Prospects for Peace

Elections in Armenia are most often portrayed from an international perspective as a contest between the pro-Western government and the pro-Russian opposition. Similarly, the prospects for restructuring the country’s security architecture and its long-term geostrategy are interpreted in this two-dimensional manner. Nevertheless, the outlook for further regional change is far...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1637

8 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Elections in Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan Remains in Power

On Sunday, 7 June, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party, the Civil Contract, securing victory for the third time in a row. This result is likely to mean a continuation of the political course adopted by Armenia in recent years, in both foreign and domestic policy. Nevertheless, the results confirm deep social polarisation,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1632

2 June 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Czechia’s Efforts to Strengthen National Fuel Security

In recent years, Czechia’s oil sector has come under significant geopolitical and infrastructure-related pressure, prompting the government to take steps to strengthen national fuel security. These measures have focused on phasing out Russian crude oil, diversifying supply sources, expanding transmission infrastructure, and increasing the role of the state in stock management...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1627

28 May 2026

Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team

Eesti.ai – the next stage in Estonia’s digital transformation

Estonia launched Eesti.ai in 2026 – a programme in which the adoption of artificial intelligence is treated as an instrument of economic policy. The declared goal is ambitious: to double labour productivity by 2035 and increase GDP by 50% within ten years. The approved pool of fifteen flagship projects operationalises this ambition, while at the same time opening up a number of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1625

26 May 2026

Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The United States Is Making Decisions Regarding Its Military Contingents in Europe: Six Implications for Poland

The decision to suspend the deployment of a rotational contingent of the United States Armed Forces to Poland has brought to light structural deficiencies in bilateral relations. The uncertainty generated by this decision merely exemplifies the broader challenges inherent in the asymmetrical Polish-American partnership. Improving the condition of these relations requires Polish...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1620

19 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Reconfiguring Gas Security in Southern Europe

In recent years, the architecture of energy security in the countries of Southern Europe has undergone a significant transformation, driven by supply shocks and shifts in the international environment. A region that for decades depended heavily on energy supplies from Russia is now playing an increasingly important role as a transit and balancing area for new natural gas flows...

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