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Institute of Central Europe/IEŚ Commentaries

IEŚ Commentaries

IEŚ Commentaries 1729
26 October 2026
Michał Paszkowski

Europe’s Approach to Natural Gas Supplies from Russia

European countries have been reducing their purchases of Russian natural gas since Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine. However, the pace of this process has varied. In the first nine months of 2026, European Union member states imported approximately 11% more Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) than in the same period of the previous year, despite the announced ban...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1727
22 October 2026
Jakub Bornio

The Bergen Group: A New Format for Cooperation within NATO

The establishment of the Bergen Group, bringing together selected NATO members, forms part of the United States’ strategy of encouraging its European allies to assume greater responsibility for the Alliance’s conventional defence. The choice of participants nevertheless raises questions about the intentions of the Donald Trump administration and the implications of this...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1725
20 October 2026
Jakub Olchowski

Consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Yandex data centres

Between October 7 and 11, 2026, Ukrainian forces carried out drone attacks on Yandex data centres[1]. Three of the Russian tech giant’s six data centres (according to official figures) were targeted. In the days that followed, numerous reports—including some in Poland—suggested that the Ukrainian attacks had led to a decline in the intensity of Russian propaganda and...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1708
30 September 2026
Jakub Olchowski

Russia’s pressure on Europe. Between sabotage and disinformation

Russia’s actions targeting Europe are increasingly extending beyond isolated acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, or disinformation campaigns. Their significance lies in the combination of various instruments within a broader strategy aimed at weakening the West and curtailing its support for Ukraine. However, the response from European states remains largely reactive; the initiative...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1701
16 September 2026
Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik

Equitable Cartography: The UN Resolution on a New World Map

On 4 September 2026, 164 countries voted in favour of a United Nations draft resolution entitled “Correcting the Map”. The aim of this resolution was to restore balance in global cartographic representation and to promote the fair representation of world regions, with a particular focus on Africa. The objective was to create a map that would more accurately reflect the actual...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1697
10 September 2026
Michał Paszkowski

Low Natural Gas Storage Levels in Europe Ahead of the Winter Season

In early September 2026, the European natural gas market entered the final phase of the storage injection season with inventories significantly below the levels recorded in previous years. On 1 September, natural gas storage facilities in the European Union were at 65.4% of capacity, compared with 77.7% the previous year and 92.4% two years earlier. This means that Europe is...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1694
4 September 2026
Spasimir Domaradzki

The introduction of the euro and inflation in Bulgaria

Nine months after the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria, inflation continues to follow an upward trend. The legal and institutional measures proposed by the government have so far failed to produce results. The sources of rising prices should be sought both in the unstable international situation and in the ineffective actions of Bulgarian institutions during the introduction...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1693
3 September 2026
Michał Paszkowski

U.S. Sanctions and the Insolvency Proceedings of Romania’s Petrotel Refinery

Romania’s Petrotel refinery, owned by the Russian energy company Lukoil, entered into insolvency proceedings at the end of August 2026. The decision of the Ploiești Tribunal, which has jurisdiction over Prahova County, followed nearly a year of inactivity at the facility after Lukoil was placed under U.S. sanctions in the autumn of 2025. State supervision over the assets as...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1689
28 August 2026
Bartłomiej Krzysztan | Michał Paszkowski

The Middle Corridor perspective: opportunities and challenges

After 2022, political momentum behind the development of the Middle Corridor gained pace. While it is a project with considerable potential in transport, economic and energy terms, its actual expansion and competitiveness are dependent on a multitude of challenges and risks. In the energy sphere, the corridor’s importance lies primarily in diversifying supply routes for...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1682
14 August 2026
Robert Rajczyk

András Baka – the New President of Hungary

On August 2026, the National Assembly elected the 8th president of Hungary since 1990. András Baka will take office eight days after the election results are announced – on August 19th, the day before Hungary’s national holiday – St. Stephen’s Day (Szent István napja). The newly elected president’s term, according to the provisions of the 17th amendment to the...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1681
13 August 2026
Agata Domachowska

Serbia – United States: Strengthening bilateral relations

The inauguration of the US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue in July 2026 represents an important step in the development of bilateral relations since Aleksander Vučić came to power. The establishment of a permanent consultation mechanism indicates the readiness of both sides to strengthen cooperation in the fields of energy, security, new technologies, and science. At the same time,...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1679
11 August 2026
Michał Paszkowski

Operation of refineries in Central Europe during a period of low water levels on the Danube

Low water levels on the Danube have caused logistical disruptions to fuel transportation in Central and South-Eastern Europe. Reduced barge loading capacity has forced some deliveries to be redirected to rail and road transport, increasing both costs and pressure on inventory levels. Despite these difficulties, the main refineries located along the Danube continue to operate...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1674
3 August 2026
Michał Paszkowski

Impact of Low Water Levels in the Danube on Electricity Generation in Europe

At the end of July 2026, record-low water levels in the Danube, combined with heatwaves and drought, constrained the operation of power plants in Central and South-Eastern Europe. The crisis demonstrated that even stable energy sources, including nuclear power plants, are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events and limited availability of water used for cooling. Within...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1673
29 July 2026
Jakub Bornio | Agata Tatarenko

The Coalition of the Willing and changes in Europe’s security architecture: Implications for Central and Eastern Europe

On 13 July 2026, another summit of the so-called Coalition of the Willing was held in Paris. The consolidation of this format constitutes yet another indication of a changing approach to organising security in Europe. Flexible forms of cooperation bringing together states willing to undertake concrete military commitments are growing in importance, regardless of the formal...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1672
28 July 2026
Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik

Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 3 – Finland and Romania

The examples of Finland and Romania demonstrate that natural ecosystems can serve multiple functions in security policy. In Finland, natural landscape elements have been integrated into defence planning, while in Romania, the Danube waterways can be used for military transport or to create alternative routes for exporting goods. While the potential of natural security...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1670
24 July 2026
Jakub Olchowski

Ukraine: the price of centralisation of power

The reshuffle of Ukraine’s government in July 2026 proved to be much more than a personnel change. The dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov triggered the largest political crisis since the beginning of the full-scale war, revealing the growing tensions between state efficiency and the logic of concentrating power in the presidential center. These events could have...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1669
23 July 2026
Michał Paszkowski

The Neptun Deep Project and the Changing Architecture of the Natural Gas Market in South-Eastern Europe

Neptun Deep is one of the most important energy projects currently under development in the European part of the Black Sea. Its launch, planned for 2027, could significantly alter Romania’s position in the natural gas market. The project, implemented by OMV Petrom and Romgaz, is expected to increase domestic production, strengthen Romania’s energy security, and create new...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1668
22 July 2026
Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik

The Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 2 – Poland and the Baltic States

In recent years, the countries on NATO’s eastern flank have increasingly come to view the natural environment not only as an ecological resource but also as an element of security infrastructure. Peatlands, wetlands, and forest complexes play a particularly important role in Poland and the Baltic states, as they can support defence capabilities by limiting the mobility of a...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1666
17 July 2026
Jakub Bornio

NATO after the Ankara Summit: Deepening the Europeanisation of the Alliance amid Persistent Instability

The NATO Summit in Ankara, held on 7–8 July 2026, should be regarded as a moderate success. The principal directions of NATO’s evolution were maintained, with the gradual Europeanisation of the Alliance remaining the central element of this process. At the same time, the meeting confirmed that NATO continues to face structural challenges – both internal and external – that...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1664
15 July 2026
Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik

Green Shield – Natural Infrastructure for Security. Part 1 – Ukraine

The concept of the green border envisages the use of natural ecosystems as an element of a state’s security infrastructure. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated by both historical experience and the ongoing war in Ukraine, showing that wetlands, forests, and rivers can significantly constrain an adversary’s mobility, support defensive operations, and also serve as...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1656
8 July 2026
Michał Paszkowski

Effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure

Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure are no longer limited to isolated sabotage or military operations; they are now producing measurable economic and organisational effects. A series of attacks on refineries, fuel depots, transhipment terminals, and elements of transmission infrastructure have led to reduced operations at some facilities, disruptions in...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1652
2 July 2026
Michał Paszkowski

European Union Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas Supplies in the Context of the Security of Central European Countries

The entry into force of successive EU restrictions on imports of Russian natural gas is intended to complete the process of phasing out supplies from Russia and to permanently reshape the structure of the European market for this commodity. The REPowerEU regulation, adopted in early 2026, provides for a gradual phase-out of imports: from a ban on concluding new contracts, through...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1651
1 July 2026
Agata Tatarenko | Jakub Bornio

V4 Summit in Gödöllő

After a hiatus of more than two years, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary met in Gödöllő (Hungary) on 23 June 2026 for a Visegrád Group summit. The resumption of high-level meetings is itself symbolically significant, as it marks the end of a period of political freeze in cooperation resulting from differences over policy towards...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1647
24 June 2026
Jakub Olchowski

Ukraine’s Growing Importance as a “Security Provider”

The war with Russia has transformed not only the Ukrainian armed forces but also Ukraine’s position in the European security system. Thanks to the dynamic development of its defence industry, military technologies, and unique experience gained on the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself not as a recipient of Western aid, but as a partner capable of...

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IEŚ Commentaries 1645
19 June 2026
Agata Tatarenko

Why Are We Still Talking About the Visegrad Group? Hungary’s Proposal for Expanding Central European Cooperation

The Visegrad Group summit scheduled for 23 June 2026 in Budapest may mark the beginning of a new debate on the future of regional cooperation in Central Europe. While Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has announced plans to revive cooperation within V4, he has simultaneously proposed expanding the framework to include Austria, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia and possibly Germany....

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