IEŚ Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1647

24 June 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Growing Importance as a “Security Provider”

The war with Russia has transformed not only the Ukrainian armed forces but also Ukraine’s position in the European security system. Thanks to the dynamic development of its defence industry, military technologies, and unique experience gained on the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself not as a recipient of Western aid, but as a partner capable of...

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Public History and Memory Politics Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1645

19 June 2026

Agata Tatarenko - Public History and Memory Politics Team

Why Are We Still Talking About the Visegrad Group? Hungary’s Proposal for Expanding Central European Cooperation

The Visegrad Group summit scheduled for 23 June 2026 in Budapest may mark the beginning of a new debate on the future of regional cooperation in Central Europe. While Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has announced plans to revive cooperation within V4, he has simultaneously proposed expanding the framework to include Austria, Croatia, Romania, Slovenia and possibly Germany....

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1640

16 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Armenia after the Elections: A Strategic Pivot and Prospects for Peace

Elections in Armenia are most often portrayed from an international perspective as a contest between the pro-Western government and the pro-Russian opposition. Similarly, the prospects for restructuring the country’s security architecture and its long-term geostrategy are interpreted in this two-dimensional manner. Nevertheless, the outlook for further regional change is far...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1637

8 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Elections in Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan Remains in Power

On Sunday, 7 June, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party, the Civil Contract, securing victory for the third time in a row. This result is likely to mean a continuation of the political course adopted by Armenia in recent years, in both foreign and domestic policy. Nevertheless, the results confirm deep social polarisation,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1632

2 June 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Czechia’s Efforts to Strengthen National Fuel Security

In recent years, Czechia’s oil sector has come under significant geopolitical and infrastructure-related pressure, prompting the government to take steps to strengthen national fuel security. These measures have focused on phasing out Russian crude oil, diversifying supply sources, expanding transmission infrastructure, and increasing the role of the state in stock management...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1627

28 May 2026

Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team

Eesti.ai – the next stage in Estonia’s digital transformation

Estonia launched Eesti.ai in 2026 – a programme in which the adoption of artificial intelligence is treated as an instrument of economic policy. The declared goal is ambitious: to double labour productivity by 2035 and increase GDP by 50% within ten years. The approved pool of fifteen flagship projects operationalises this ambition, while at the same time opening up a number of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1625

26 May 2026

Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The United States Is Making Decisions Regarding Its Military Contingents in Europe: Six Implications for Poland

The decision to suspend the deployment of a rotational contingent of the United States Armed Forces to Poland has brought to light structural deficiencies in bilateral relations. The uncertainty generated by this decision merely exemplifies the broader challenges inherent in the asymmetrical Polish-American partnership. Improving the condition of these relations requires Polish...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1620

19 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Reconfiguring Gas Security in Southern Europe

In recent years, the architecture of energy security in the countries of Southern Europe has undergone a significant transformation, driven by supply shocks and shifts in the international environment. A region that for decades depended heavily on energy supplies from Russia is now playing an increasingly important role as a transit and balancing area for new natural gas flows...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1615

13 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski | Andrzej Szabaciuk | Jędrzej Jander - Eastern Team

Ukrainian Strikes on Targets Deep Inside the Territory of the Russian Federation

In the ongoing war, Russia has consistently targeted Ukraine’s energy sector. In response—and as part of a strategy aimed at reducing the aggressor’s financial revenues from energy exports—Ukraine has increasingly shifted its kinetic operations towards Russian energy infrastructure, including refineries, crude oil terminals, transhipment facilities, and pipelines. In the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1607

4 May 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine after Orbán’s defeat – restraint and waiting

Péter Magyar’s victory and Viktor Orbán’s defeat were greeted with cautious optimism in Ukraine. While the disappearance of one of Kyiv’s main critics within the EU opens up new opportunities for cooperation, reactions from politicians and experts remain reserved. From a Ukrainian perspective, this represents not a breakthrough, but rather a correction to Budapest’s...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1605

1 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Nuclear Sector 40 Years After the Chernobyl Disaster

Four decades after the Chernobyl disaster, it is evident that Ukraine’s nuclear sector has undergone a lasting shift toward risk management; rather than expansion, the priorities have become safety, reliability, and system resilience. The ongoing war has further tested this model, exposing the critical dependence of stable electricity generation on the power grid, as well as the...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1602

29 April 2026

Aida Topić - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

From Election Results to Political Uncertainty: Coalition Formation after Slovenia’s 2026 Elections

The 2026 parliamentary elections in Slovenia failed to produce a clear winner, thereby opening space for complex coalition negotiations. The narrow margin between the two leading parties, Svoboda and SDS, combined with their substantial ideological differences, constrains viable coalition options and contributes to heightened political uncertainty. Election Results. According to...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1598

23 April 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Rebuilding Natural Gas Storage Levels in Central Europe under Challenging Geopolitical Conditions

The replenishment of natural gas stocks in Europe during 2026 is taking place amid heightened uncertainty, driven by simultaneous disruptions to the availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The low post‑winter storage fill level (around 29%) amplifies the scale of the challenge, while adverse price signals reduce the incentive for...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1594

20 April 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The TISZA Party’s Victory and the Potential Shift in Hungary’s Energy Policy

A victory for the TISZA party (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt) in Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary elections could trigger an adjustment to the country’s energy policy, which in recent years has been grounded in dependence on supplies of Russian commodities (crude oil and natural gas) and in nuclear cooperation under the Paks II project. The scope and pace of any changes, however,...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1585

10 April 2026

Robert Rajczyk - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

The Prime Minister of Hungary’s Political Offensive at the End of the Election Campaign

The organisation of the convention for the populist right from the Patriots for Europe political group, the conservative CPAC conference, and the visit to Hungary of the American vice president are all elements of building an international position for Viktor Orbán and mobilising the electoral base before the parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12. Polls, conducted by...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1581

7 April 2026

Nora Gigineishvili - Eastern Team

From EU Standard Institutional Reform to Party Control – The transformation of Georgia’s Public Service

Georgia’s foreign policy shift has resulted in multiple repressive and undemocratic measures aimed at suppressing the protests triggered by the decision to halt EU accession negotiations. The civil service became one of the targets of the coercive apparatus for systemic subordination, transforming it from an institution striving for alignment with European standards into an...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1576

31 March 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Drones do not win wars

The war in Ukraine demonstrates the growing role of digital technologies, unmanned systems, and electronic warfare. The mass use of drones, supported by a developed IT sector and efficient institutional adaptation, has allowed Ukraine to effectively limit its opponent’s military advantage. At the same time, even the most advanced technological solutions do not eliminate the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1571

25 March 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Crisis of Crude Oil Availability in Slovakia and Its Implications for the Regional Fuel Market

In 2026, liquid fuel tourism in Slovakia became one of the key manifestations of mounting tensions in the regional liquid fuel market, stemming from disruption on the crude oil supply side. Relatively low diesel prices – maintained despite the suspension of crude oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, and the conflict in the Middle East – created strong demand-side...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1568

24 March 2026

Szczepan Czarnecki - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

Czech Republic: New Budget Amid Disputes over the Deficit and Defense Spending

On 11 March this year, the Parliament of the Czech Republic adopted the government’s budget bill for 2026, bringing to an end a three-month period of provisional budgeting. Despite opposition resistance—effectively deprived of any real influence over the final shape of the budget—the law was passed and subsequently signed on 20 March by President Petr Pavel, who at the same...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1563

18 March 2026

Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The Impact of the Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz on Transatlantic Cohesion

Since 14 March 2026, Donald Trump has been urging European NATO allies to engage in efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The coercive tone employed by the President of the United States in his appeal to NATO member states, coupled with the unequivocal rejection of his proposal by European leaders, constitutes yet another manifestation of tensions...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1552

10 March 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Devastated Ukrainian Power Sector and the Growing Dependence on Electricity Imports from the European Union

Ukraine’s power sector is among the most heavily damaged components of the country’s infrastructure as a result of the full-scale war launched in February 2022. A system that only a few years earlier possessed substantial export potential to European Union member states has, over the four years of war, undergone profound technical and structural degradation. Large-scale...

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Baltic Team, Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1544

4 March 2026

Michał Paszkowski | Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team, Eastern Team

The U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict and the Energy and Economic Situation of Central European Countries

The armed conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran—encompassing both strikes on targets inside Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf—together with the effective suspension of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered the most severe shock to global energy markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1541

2 March 2026

Robert Rajczyk | Szczepan Czarnecki | Agata Tatarenko - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

Reactions of Central European States to the U.S.–Israeli Strike on Iran

The U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran has forced Central European states to take clear positions. The prime minister of Slovakia used the occasion to criticize the European Union, while the Hungarian head of government incorporated the potential negative consequences of the intervention into his election campaign and Hunagry’s relations with Ukraine. The Czech Republic, in turn,...

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European Integration and Conflict Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1534

25 February 2026

Spasimir Domaradzki | Piotr Oleksy - European Integration and Conflict Team

Reverse enlargement – plans for fundamental changes in the EU

Together with some Member States, the EU is working on a plan to change the rules for admitting new members. Its aim is to enable the accession of Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, and Ukraine as early as 2027. The political game is primarily about a fast track to membership for the Ukraine. However, a revolution in the enlargement process would change the entire structure of the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1533

25 February 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Hungary and Slovakia in the Face of a Disruption to Crude Oil Supplies via the Druzhba Pipeline

The Druzhba pipeline constitutes a critical component of Central Europe’s energy infrastructure, supplying Russian crude oil to refineries in Slovakia and Hungary. Following the suspension of deliveries through the southern branch on 27 January 2026, both countries found themselves facing a serious threat to energy security, as they remain among the last EU member states still...

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