IEŚ Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 977

Piotr Oleksy - Eastern Team

The enlargement imperative. The EU between historical chance and great risk (part 1)

The discussion on the enlargement of the European Union has gained new momentum. The admission of new members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans is now being presented as a strategic necessity. This has reinforced expectations among candidate countries and sparked debate about the indispensability of institutional reforms among member states. Key decisions on enlargement...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 976

Szczepan Czarnecki | Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Reorganization of the gas sector in Czechia

In Czechia, under the influence of the Russian Federation’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, there has been a change in the operation of energy companies, which are supposed not only to meet business objectives but also to strengthen the state’s energy security. In this context, in the past few months, we have seen the implementation of two acquisitions by companies wholly owned...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 973

Hanna Bazhenova - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Demographic Challenges

Ukraine’s population began to decline long before February 2022. On the eve of the Russian invasion, it ranged from 34.5 to 37.4 million people. The armed conflict catastrophically accelerated the depopulation of the country and led to an even greater deformation of the age and gender structure of the population. Alongside numerous irreparable human losses, mobilisation,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 968

Andrzej Szabaciuk - Eastern Team

The Ukrainian Authorities’ Policy towards Internally Displaced Persons following the Invasion by the Russian Federation

The Russian attack on Ukraine resulted in one of the most significant humanitarian crises in Europe since World War II. In its aftermath, millions of Ukrainians were compelled to abandon their former places of residence and seek refuge within or outside the country. Ukraine is making efforts to provide social support to those affected by the war. However, due to the limited...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 965

Andrzej Szabaciuk - Eastern Team

Russian War Mobilisation One Year After Vladimir Putin’s Decree

On 21 September 2023, a year had passed since the announcement of Vladimir Putin’s decree on mobilization, which remains in effect to this day. This decree led to the deployment of over 400,000 Russian conscripts to Ukraine, while an even larger cohort chose to leave the country due to apprehensions of front-line deployment. In retrospect, it is imperative to acknowledge that...

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Balkan Team, Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 955

Spasimir Domaradzki | Michał Paszkowski - Balkan Team, Baltic Team

Bulgaria: technical government settlements on natural gas deal

In Bulgaria, the new government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov has ordered an investigation into the 2023 Bulgarian-Turkish agreement, which provides access for Bulgargaz to LNG terminals in Turkey and the Turkish transmission network. According to the government’s position, the agreement between Bulgargaz and BOTAŞ, which was concluded for a period of 13 years, is...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 952

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

The development of military cooperation as part of multinational units among Visegrad countries (V4) in 2023

The geopolitical location of the Visegrad Group countries at the centre of NATO’s eastern flank makes them an important keystone in the security processes of the Central and Eastern European region. The military dimension of the V4 cooperation has been its key element since the platform’s inception when the countries coordinated their efforts to join NATO. As a result of the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 946

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Consequences of the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin

The failed coup by the Wagnerites showed the weakness of the Russian state and personally humiliated Vladimir Putin. From his point of view, eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin was necessary. In this way, he wanted to show who was in control of the situation and warn potential rebels. In the short term, this may produce results, but in the long term, the political losses may be serious....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 941

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 3)

The Spring 2023 economic forecasts published by the European Commission indicate that, despite a gradual improvement in the stability of the public finance sector, many Central European countries will continue to experience budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP. The largest budget deficits will be observed in Slovakia and Poland. Despite these challenges, both economies will...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 939

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 2)

In 2022, among eleven Central European countries, five of them had budget deficits that exceeded the agreed limit of 3% of GDP. According to the latest data from Eurostat, the highest budget deficits, and consequently, the greatest challenges for the stability of the public finance sector, were recorded in Hungary and Romania. Hungary, thanks to its expansive fiscal policy,...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 937

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Azerbaijan’s growing role in ensuring the energy security of Central European countries

The Russian Federation’s armed attack on Ukraine has changed the perception of energy-exporting countries. In the past, Russia played a key role in providing crude oil and natural gas supplies to Central European countries, however, the war has forced countries in the region to seek alternative suppliers. Under these conditions, Azerbaijan has been growing in importance for many...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 933

Hanna Bazhenova - Eastern Team

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine: The Problem of Maintaining Legitimacy after the End of the Term

The scheduled parliamentary elections in Ukraine were to be held on 29 October 2023, but with the decision to extend martial law until 15 November, the Verkhovna Rada effectively cancelled the elections for this year. At the same time, the debate on the possibility and expediency of holding elections before the end of the armed conflict has once again intensified. Organising...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 930

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Underground natural gas storage facilities in Ukraine

Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage facilities, together with its extensive pipeline network, have played an important role in ensuring the availability of natural gas in Europe over the years. However, the importance of Ukrainian infrastructure was reduced as a result of the systematic reduction of natural gas supplies from east to west following the Russian...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 924

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik | Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team

Lithuanian strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region

On July 5, the Lithuanian government adopted the Strategy for the Indo-Pacific region prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The document was developed in response to the need to ensure security and strengthen Lithuania’s international position as well as to tighten economic cooperation with partners from this region. At the same time, in the Strategy, Lithuania once again...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 922

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Lithuanian security and the Wagner Group in Belarus

As a result of the Wagner Group mercenaries arriving in Belarus, fears have grown in Lithuania that these mercenaries may be used by the Belarusian regime, among other things, to support migrants illegally crossing the Lithuanian border. Therefore, the discussion on the introduction of stricter entry rules for Belarusian citizens has resumed. Currently, in the opinion of the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 916

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 1)

During deep recessions such as those triggered recently by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, ensuring stability in the public finance sector is not an easy task. In EU countries, this stability is associated with maintaining budget deficits and public debt below the levels required by the Maastricht criteria. In 2022, many Central European countries...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 917

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Diesel supplies to the Western Balkan countries in the new international environment

For years, Russia has played an important role in supplying liquid fuels by sea to all of Europe, especially diesel fuel, a key product in the transportation industry. The Russian Federation’s armed attack on Ukraine in 2022 led to changes in commodity markets, affecting the volume of liquid fuel imports to the Western Balkan countries. Due to the new market conditions,...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 915

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Serbia activates natural gas supply efforts

Serbia has, for years, been dependent on natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation, and the resulting political influence has had consequences for its energy policy and the presence of Russian capital in key energy companies. In recent months, however, there has been a noticeable modification of the Belgrade government’s position on the importance of Russia in ensuring...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 902

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Economic growth slowdown and future prospects: an analysis of forecasts for Lithuania

Lithuania’s pursuit of geopolitical stabilization and the effective use of financial resources is crucial for its economic recovery. The European Commission’s forecasts for 2023 suggest a slowdown in economic growth due to persistent inflation. However, there are more optimistic prospects for 2024, which anticipate greater economic growth due to lower inflation, increased...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 887

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

The path to stability: the future of Latvia in the context of economic forecasts for the years 2023-2024

Despite having to grapple with issues such as the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine or – earlier – the COVID-19 pandemic, Latvia’s economy has demonstrated its ability to adapt and maintain growth dynamics. Notwithstanding the anticipated slowdown in export growth due to a decrease in foreign demand, the second half of 2023 is likely to see a significant...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 891

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Hybrid Counter-offensive

At the turn of May and June 2023, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive. Aware of the high stakes and high expectations, both from the public and from Western partners, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to tone down excessive optimism. At the same time, hybrid instruments were also used to increase the chances of a counter-offensive by destabilising and causing chaos in Russia....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 879

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Sweden’s electricity sector challenges

For years, Sweden’s low electricity prices have been a direct consequence of the operation of the country’s nuclear and hydroelectric power plants. A stable level of energy demand has made Sweden an energy exporter, but the situation may change over the next several years. Such a situation will require appropriate investment measures. Over the years, negative public attitudes...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 875

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

The Council of the Baltic Sea States: regional cooperation in Times of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) states, during their meeting in Wismar on June 1-2, 2023, concluded Germany’s one-year presidency of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS). The Presidency was driven by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the region. The ongoing discussion about the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 878

Bartosz Jóźwik - Baltic Team

Estonia in the face of economic difficulties: an analysis of GDP decline and prospects for the future

The Estonian economy has been facing problems that have had a significant impact on its economic outlook. In 2022, Estonia’s real GDP decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous year. Forecasts which indicate that the downward trend might continue in 2023 are also concerning. Interestingly, despite the unfavourable economic situation, there is a decrease in the unemployment rate...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 871

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Lithuanian-German military cooperation

Germany is an important partner of Lithuania in the field of security and defence. It also serves as Lithuania’s strategic ally both within NATO and the European Union. At the same time, Germany has made a significant contribution to regional security by investing in military infrastructure in Lithuania and supporting the modernisation of the Lithuanian army. Currently, the...

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