IEŚ Commentaries

Joe Biden, the 46th President of the USA – Ukraine’s Hopes

Joe Biden’s election victory was welcomed in Ukraine. Donald Trump was treated with distrust resulting from the conviction that he was self-interested and did not understand the problems of Eastern Europe, and he was also accused of treating Ukraine instrumentally. Biden knows Ukraine, his administration will support Ukrainian reforms, and will probably put more pressure on...

The automotive industry in Slovakia has overshadowed by the COVID-19 Pandemic

The automotive industry is a key industrial sector in Slovakia. It is also the main source of direct foreign investment in the country. The situation in the automotive industry during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, when automotive manufacturers suspended car production, had a significant impact on the Slovak economy. On the other hand, the lockdown introduced by the...

New restrictions and new (better) economic forecasts in the Baltic States

The increase in COVID-19 infections in the Baltic States in recent weeks has resulted in a number of restrictions, but the second lockdown will not affect the economies of the Baltic States as anticipated. Forecasts indicated that the recession in 2020 in Lithuania and Estonia would be one of the lowest in Europe. However, the most recent restrictions – such as the ban on moving...

The Hungarian government amends the Fundamental Law for the ninth time

On November 10, 2020, a draft amendment to the Hungarian Constitution was submitted. Justice Minister Judit Varga submitted the bill with significant but politically controversial changes to the Constitution to be processed while Hungary struggles with the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of danger (article no 53 in Fundamental Law) being reintroduced. State of danger again. Due to...

Montenegro: A new government

On December 4, 2020, the new government of Montenegro was elected, headed by Zdravko Krivokapić. For the first time in almost three decades, the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (Demokratska partija socijalista Crne Gore, DPS) – the political party the current President of Montenegro Milo Đukanović comes from – has not formed the government. The new prime...

Hungarian veto EU budget – belief or strategy?

On November 8, Viktor Orbán sent a letter to the leaders of Germany, Slovenia, and Portugal, as well as to the President of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, informing them that if the EU budget and the Next Generation EU fund, dealing with the rule of law, where would be a Hungarian veto. A few days, later this veto was formalized during the...

Deepening CEFTA integration

The Secretariat of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) announced the strengthening of cooperation between the CEFTA member states, which include the Western Balkans (WB6). Greater competitiveness and attractiveness of the region will positive affect trade with EU countries, especially with Germany and Italy, but also Russia, China, and Turkey. The declaration on the...

Ukraine: New Security Strategy, Old Problems

The national security strategy of Ukraine that was adopted in September 2020 refers to many levels as well as threats and challenges, and also specifies Poland as a strategic partner. In the military dimension, however, the implementation of the strategy may be difficult. Despite rapid development and modernization, both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the arms sector are...

Formats of multilateral cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region: in search of their niche

During the last six months participants of the various regional cooperation formats have started a discussion on the 2030 vision of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The year 2021 will be a summary period on cooperation effects already achieved (HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan), an interim period (the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region), as well as a new stage of activity (result...

Local Elections Results in Ukraine

Local elections in Ukraine were held on October 25, 2020. They were conducted for the first time in accordance with the new electoral law in conditions of the ongoing decentralization of the country. Over 28 million citizens were eligible to take part in the elections for city mayors, heads of villages and townships, as well as deputies to the local councils. However, only 10.6...

Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans

Prepared by the European Commission, the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans (WB6) aims to strengthen two parallel integration processes: firstly, harmonization of the WB6's economies with the economy of the European Union, and secondly, creating stronger regional economic and infrastructural ties. It is a continuation of the policy initiated at the Berlin Summit...

State of emergency and mass testing: the second wave of the pandemic in Slovakia

On October 1, the Slovak authorities introduced a state of emergency for the second time. This step was taken due to the rapid increase in the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Further restrictions were implemented, concerning, inter alia, quarantines, organizing mass events, and a number of restrictions in schools and universities. On October 23, Slovakia began...

Belarus and Ukraine: a new market for crude oil from the US?

In 2020, both Belarus and Ukraine purchased US crude oil, albeit for different reasons. The scale of import is small, but the market and international conditions could change it. In particular, if Belarus decides to create a more diversified structure of imports, it could count on the US (export of a similar crude oil grade). Unfortunately, the current political situation is not...

The Importance of Local Elections in the Political Life of Ukraine

Local elections in Ukraine will be held on October 25, 2020. The growth in the number of candidates for local government bodies, the transfer of politicians from the central to the local level, the strengthening of the local elites and their self-organization into political parties to fight for power, the involvement of professional political strategists in the election process,...

The impact of COVID-19 on the fiscal policies of the Central European countries

Within six months of the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central European countries spent nearly 10% of GDP on fiscal support. This decisive response by governments is mitigating the effects of the economic crisis, saving companies and preserving jobs. However, an increase in expenditure with lower budgetary revenues inevitably leads to a deterioration in the...

Belarus and Russia – a Fraternal Iron Grip

On September 14, 2020 in Sochi, Vladimir Putin met with Alyaksandr Lukashenka, and the meeting, as expected, did not bring about any crucial changes. It was supposed to be a symbolic message – Russia has confirmed that Belarus would remain in the sphere of its influence and in the “Russian world” the West should not interfere. Humiliated and put in a spot, Alyaksandr...

(Dis)unity of the Visegrad Group countries in the face of the crisis in Belarus

The presidential elections in Belarus and the post-election protests have raised a discussion in Central European countries. The Belarusian issue was debated during the meetings of the Visegrad Group, including the V4 summit organized on September 11, 2020 in Lublin. The Belarusian issue highlighted certain differences within the Visegrad Group. However, there is still no...

The international role of Lithuania towards the crisis in Belarus

Lithuania has become the greatest advocate for the Belarusian problem, not only regionally but also globally. Its quick response and strong voice in favor of democratic processes in Belarus are determined by its experiences related to the Lithuanian resistance to the Soviet regime and its security concerns in the region. Despite the tense bilateral relations, the historical...

Norway in the United Nations Security Council 2021-2022: “talented strategist” or “running young fox”? (Damian Szacawa)

On June 17, 2020, Norway was elected as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for 2021-2022. Of the five priorities presented by Norway, special attention was paid to the need to respect international law and strengthen the structures of multilateral cooperation. These ambitious goals are accompanied by numerous global challenges, requiring the...

“Back on track”: the Polish Presidency of the Visegrad Group in the shadow of a pandemic (Łukasz Lewkowicz)

On July 1, Poland took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (V4) for the sixth time. In the program of the new presidency, the emphasis was placed on taking joint actions to return to economic and social normality. The most important element of the functioning of the V4 in the coming year is to stimulate the economy weakened by the pandemic. The tasks of particular...

Ukraine and NATO – a turbulent relationship

New hopes for enhanced cooperation within the reformed Council of the Baltic Sea States (Damian Szacawa)

On May 19th, a meeting of foreign ministers of the Council of Baltic Sea States (CBSS) was held. The virtual meeting (videoconference) was organized due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the session, the ministers approved the CBSS reform, as well as raised issues of cooperation in the Baltic Sea region during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other issues involved youth involvement in...

“We didn’t write the past, the future is in our hands”: a new Slovak-Hungarian opening in the shadow of Trianon (Łukasz Lewkowicz)

June 4th marks 100 since the treaty was signed in Trianon, which resulted in the loss of a significant part of Hungary’s territory and population and in Slovakia being proclaimed as part of the newly created Czechoslovakia. In early June, Slovak Foreign Minister Ivan Korčok and Prime Minister Igor Matovič paid official visits to Budapest. Both politicians declare a new opening...

Another tension in Romanian-Hungarian relations (Agata Tatarenko)

At the end of April 2020, the Romanian Parliament dealt with a bill aimed at establishing an autonomous region covering areas inhabited by the Hungarian-speaking ethnic group Székelys. The bill was rejected by the senate, however, the initiative caused a number of controversies on the political scene in Romania, including, above all, the statement of President Klaus Iohannis. The...

Historical controversy complicates the relations of Bulgaria and North Macedonia once again (Jan Muś)

The issue of Macedonian national identity has returned to the international forum. Bulgaria’s position may complicate the process of integration of North Macedonia with the European Union and currently threatens to escalate another regional controversy based on their history. The aggravation of the returning historical conflict may also lead to a decline of political support for...