IEŚ Commentaries

Finland’s response to the Russian Federation’s provocations regarding the change of maritime borders in the Baltic Sea

On 22 May 2024, the Russian Federation presented a draft that could lead to the revision of the internal waters boundary in the Baltic Sea. Despite its removal from the agenda of the legislative work of the Russian Duma, the proposal has nevertheless caused considerable concern among neighbouring states due to the potential revision of bilateral and multilateral agreements...

Slovakia: prospects for natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan

The Russian-Ukrainian war has initiated a strategic shift in Slovakia, moving away from the reliance on natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation. In this new geopolitical context, Slovakia’s challenge lies in securing alternative sources of this commodity, rather than in developing infrastructure, which has already been established over the years and currently...

The Blue Economy in Poland and the Baltic States

The blue economy is a concept of sustainable use of marine, ocean, and coastal resources aimed at supporting economic development while caring for the environment. In Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, this part of the economy generates over 5 billion EURof annual value added and employs over 200,000 workers. The blue economy also plays an important role in achieving the...

Moldova: potential problems with electricity availability in 2025

Moldova finds itself in a unique situation regarding electricity availability, which is sourced almost entirely from its breakaway region of Transnistria (which is not recognised by the majority of the international community). Energy is supplied from the Cuciurgani-Moldavskaya GRES (MGRES) power plant, which does not pay for natural gas from the Russian Federation. The planned...

Imports of commodities and petroleum products from the US to Poland and the Baltic States

The Russian Federation’s aggression toward Ukraine has led Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to cease the importation of commodities and petroleum products from Russia. This has resulted in a gap that has been filled by imports from other sources, including the United States of America. Collaboration with the US influences energy security and holds political significance...

The Weimar Triangle: new-old cooperation horizon

The Weimar Triangle, a platform for cooperation between France, Germany, and Poland, is gaining importance as a forum for dialogue on security issues in Europe. The recent meetings of this format show a determination to strengthen trilateral cooperation, including through the extension of activities into new areas such as protection against disinformation or building social ties,...

War in Ukraine: Kyiv’s efforts to ensure the availability of petroleum products

The ongoing war that began in 2022 has brought about significant changes in Ukraine’s energy market. In late 2023, the government in Kyiv introduced measures to bolster the country’s energy security by establishing a system of crude oil and petroleum products reserves. While work on the relevant legislation had been underway for years, it was the war and Ukraine’s attainment...

The Three Seas Initiative after the Vilnius Summit: security first

On 11 April 2024, the 9th summit of The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) occurred in Vilnius. The 3SI is a regional cooperation format initiated in 2016 and developed by the heads of Central European countries. A key objective of the initiative is to stimulate the development of energy, transport, and digital infrastructure. There are currently 13 EU Member States participating in 3SI,...

Shelters in Lithuania. Catching up

Over the last two years, due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, Lithuania has amended the law on crisis management and civil protection. A review of existing collective protection facilities was carried out and activities to create new shelters were intensified. The current infrastructure, adapted to provide temporary protection for the population in times of emergency or war,...

Lukoil plans to sell its refinery in Bulgaria

For years, companies from the Russian Federation have been acquiring attractive energy assets around the world, including in Central European countries. The introduction of EU sanctions following Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has restricted the operations of some of these companies. This is the situation with the Burgas refinery in Bulgaria, owned by the...

Proposals for new fiscal rules in the EU: the perspective of Central European countries

The reform of public finance architecture in the European Union focuses on solutions that, on the one hand, will allow member states to ensure long-term financial stability, but on the other hand, will not stifle economic growth and the planned reforms and investments in strategic areas. Of particular importance from the point of view of Central European countries is the proposal...

Sweden in NATO: Relevance for Central and Eastern Europe

On 7 March 7 2024, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and the state’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström handed over the accession documents to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who, as representative of the Washington Treaty depositary state, officially announced that Sweden had become the 32nd member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Sweden’s presence in...

Security as a priority in Polish-Lithuanian relations

Poland and Lithuania have significantly strengthened their political relations recently, as numerous official visits at the highest level have reflected. Lithuania was visited by the Foreign Minister of Poland, Radosław Sikorski, then President Andrzej Duda, Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia, and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Representatives of both countries have confirmed...

Natural gas demand decline in the Baltic countries in 2023

The Baltic countries have recorded another consecutive year of declining natural gas demand in 2023. Initially, such a situation was related to the COVID-19 pandemic and high commodity prices on exchanges in Europe (the result of price manipulation by Russia in 2021 and then the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022). It is now expected that the projected economic growth in 2024 and the...

Crude oil terminals in Central European countries in the era of the shift away from Russian commodities

There are six crude oil terminals in the Central European countries of the European Union, supplying a total of sixteen refineries, several of which are located outside the EU. Due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, these terminals have been unloading tankers from countries that have not previously supplied crude oil to these refineries, or if they have, sporadically, in 2023....

LNG terminals in Central Europe: importance and operation

There are several LNG regasification terminals in Central European countries, aimed at securing natural gas supplies from various directions. In the context of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the importance of these terminals has definitely increased. At present, they are a key tool in efforts to diversify the sources and directions of natural gas supplies, especially...

Natural gas and crude oil markets in Central European countries in 2023

Central European countries in 2023 were taking active steps to strengthen energy security, which was a difficult process. A key strategic objective was to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons supplies from the Russian Federation by initiating new investments and continuing those already underway. Importantly, there are still countries on the continent that cooperate with Russia in...

Northern Macedonia expands natural gas supply infrastructure

Year 2023: The State of the Central European Economies

In 2023, five Central European economies (Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Latvia, and the Czech Republic) are expected to end the year in a state of recession, while four (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) are facing double-digit average annual inflation. Furthermore, as many as seven countries in the region are projected to record budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP....

Impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on crude oil supplies to Bulgaria and Romania

The Russian-Ukrainian war has reoriented the refining sector in the Central European region, including Bulgaria and Romania. The crude oil processing plants operating in these countries had for years imported a large amount of crude oil from the Russian Federation. The change in international conditions has contributed to the activation of efforts to diversify crude oil supply...

International Competitiveness of Economies: The Baltic States

Competitiveness is a key element of the European Union’s development strategy. In all the Baltic states, a significant weakening of competitiveness is currently observed, primarily due to external factors over which these countries, as both small and open economies, have limited influence. At the same time, however, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to invest in the...

Uncertain future of Skulte LNG terminal project

There have been efforts in Latvia to build an LNG terminal in Skulte since 2016, but recent decisions by the government in Riga make the realisation of the investment uncertain. Even the damage in early October 2023 to the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the gas system of Estonia and Finland, has not changed the Latvian government’s approach to the Skulte LNG terminal....

Reorganization of the gas sector in Czechia

In Czechia, under the influence of the Russian Federation’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, there has been a change in the operation of energy companies, which are supposed not only to meet business objectives but also to strengthen the state’s energy security. In this context, in the past few months, we have seen the implementation of two acquisitions by companies wholly owned...

Bulgaria: technical government settlements on natural gas deal

In Bulgaria, the new government of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov has ordered an investigation into the 2023 Bulgarian-Turkish agreement, which provides access for Bulgargaz to LNG terminals in Turkey and the Turkish transmission network. According to the government’s position, the agreement between Bulgargaz and BOTAŞ, which was concluded for a period of 13 years, is...

Public Finance Sector Stability in Central European Countries (Part 3)

The Spring 2023 economic forecasts published by the European Commission indicate that, despite a gradual improvement in the stability of the public finance sector, many Central European countries will continue to experience budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP. The largest budget deficits will be observed in Slovakia and Poland. Despite these challenges, both economies will...