IEŚ Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1117

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

Nuclear deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank

Since 2014, the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation have concentrated their efforts on securing the so-called eastern flank. These efforts have thus far lacked elements of nuclear deterrence. However, the inability to effectively influence NATO has led to an increase in the use of ‘nuclear blackmail’ by Russia. Considering these circumstances, it is...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1236

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Sweden’s Security Policy: Operationalising Its Role in NATO

Upon joining NATO in March 2024, Sweden embarked on the process of integrating into the Alliance’s missions (including deterrence and defence) and embedding within NATO’s political and military structures. The centre-right coalition government led by Ulf Kristersson has significantly raised defence spending, reaching 2.14% of GDP in 2024. Over the next few years, priorities...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1234

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

NATO defence ministers meet their Indo-Pacific counterparts. Towards a global alliance?

In October 2024, the very first meeting of NATO and Indo-Pacific defence ministers took place. The event reflected the deepening practical cooperation between the partners from the two poles of Eurasia, which was intensified by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite the geographical distance between the two areas, their security systems are more interconnected...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1220

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Two Years of Ulf Kristersson’s Government in Sweden: A Shift in Migration Policy and the Fight Against Crime

The minority coalition government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in power in Sweden since October 2022, has faced significant challenges over the past two years, particularly in tackling organised crime. The policies introduced so far – such as stricter immigration laws and a reduction in refugee intake – have contributed to improving security but have also led to a...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1211

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Ukraine: limited prospects for Azerbaijan to fill the gap left by Russian natural gas

As of January 1, 2025, the five-year Russian-Ukrainian agreement from 2019 on the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine will expire. This will significantly impact the availability and price of natural gas in Europe during the upcoming heating season. While Azerbaijan could potentially help fill the gap left by Russian supplies, the chances of this are limited....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1210

Marlena Gołębiowska | Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Estonia: the concept of a ‘personal state’

In 2024, Estonia, one of the world’s leaders in digitalisation, announced the next stage in the development of its public administration. The concept of a ‘personal state’ (Est. personale riik) is intended to elevate the relationship between citizens and the administration to a new level. The state aims not only to respond to citizens’ needs, but also to anticipate...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1207

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Intensification of natural gas cooperation between the Baltic States and Finland

For many years, the Baltic States and Finland have actively worked to strengthen energy security, focusing on the creation of a unified natural gas market, increasing trade, and—since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine—coordinating anti-crisis measures in the energy sector. One key aspect of this effort was the adoption of amendments to Latvia’s Energy Act...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1204

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Russians banned from buying property in states of the Baltic Sea region

The countries of the Baltic Sea region have been of interest to Russian entrepreneurs and investors for years due to their geographical proximity and dynamic economic development. As a result, some real estate located near strategic facilities is currently owned by Russians, posing a challenge to the security of the countries in the region. Bans on the purchase of land by citizens...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1202

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Poland’s Presidency in the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR)

On 1 July 2024, Poland assumed the annual presidency of the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR), which will last until June 2025. In addition to advancing projects aligned with the three primary priorities – protecting the sea, fostering regional integration, and enhancing prosperity – Poland intends to improve regional security and increase cooperation...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1191

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Croatia’s Oil Infrastructure: A Key Element of Central European Energy Security

Due to its strategic geographical location and existing infrastructure, Croatia plays a critical role in the supply of crude oil to refineries in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia. The Omišalj crude oil terminal and the Adria pipeline are particularly significant in this regard. The importance of this infrastructure has grown since the outbreak of the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1187

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

“Soft security” in the Baltic Sea Region: regional cooperation to enhance societal resilience and critical infrastructure protection

The Nordic states consider critical infrastructure protection as part of their comprehensive security. The long-standing tradition of trans-border cooperation in this area will facilitate the implementation of the EU’s Critical Entities Resilience (CER) Directive. The exchange of experience and practical operational cooperation within regional structures (Nordic Council of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1185

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Expansion of natural gas infrastructure in Southern Europe

The process of expanding energy transport capacity is currently underway in Southern Europe, with a particular focus on the natural gas market. Since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, the primary goal has been to ensure greater diversification of natural gas sources and supply routes to Central European countries. Given the reduced availability of natural gas...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1180

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Digital Ukraine – the idea of modernizing the state

The digitization process in Ukraine gained momentum only after Volodymyr Zelensky and his entourage took power in 2019. It was then assumed that the “digitalization” of the state would help bridge the civilizational gap between Ukraine and the West and accelerate the modernization of the economy and public institutions. Within a few years, significant success was achieved....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1179

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Civil defence system in Estonia

The civil defence system in Estonia is part of a comprehensive model of security, in which society actively participates in the process of building the country’s resilience and is able to respond independently to military and non-military challenges. The peculiarities of the country’s civil defence system are: 1) the use of innovative communication solutions; 2) the...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1176

Aleksandra Poznar | Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Ukraine has restricted crude oil transit via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline

In June 2024, the Ukrainian authorities expanded their list of sanctioned entities to include Lukoil, which supplies crude oil to MOL Group refineries. This led to the suspension of crude oil supplies in mid-July 2024 to the Bratislava (Slovakia) and Százhalombatta (Hungary) plants. Both plants, thanks to the derogations they received in 2022 for sanctions imposed by the European...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1175

Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania under the excessive deficit procedure

After the pandemic-related loosening of fiscal rules – in the new framework following the reform – the EU’s excessive deficit procedure is returning. On 26 July 2024, the Council of the European Union decided to initiate it against seven member states, including three from Central Europe: Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. This is the result of failing to meet the deficit...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries Brief 1172

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Estonia: priorities of the Kristen Michal’s government

On 23 July 2024, the government of Prime Minister Kristen Michal was sworn in at an extraordinary meeting of the Riigikogu after Kaja Kallas was nominated as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (“IEŚ Brief Commentaries”, no. 1167). Kristen Michal, Minister of Climate in Kaja Kallas’ government and previously Minister of Economy and Infrastructure...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1164

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Romania: ambitious plans for natural gas exports

Romania, through the implementation of the Neptune Deep project, has the opportunity to become the largest producer of natural gas among the countries of the European Union. The development of the Domino and Pelican South fields could be an essential element in strengthening the energy security not only of Romania but also of Central European countries. The increased availability...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1163

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Hungary: energy cooperation with Caspian Sea countries

Russia in Hungary’s energy policy. For many years, Hungary’s energy policy has been directed toward close cooperation with the Russian Federation. Importantly, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent EU sanctions did not fundamentally lead to a reorientation of mutual political and economic relations. Crude oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, as well as...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1162

Aleksandra Poznar - Visegrad Team

The Sovereignty Protection Office in Hungary – a threat to media freedom?

The Hungarian government has been systematically taking steps to tighten control over the media and limit funding for opposition parties for over a dozen years. An example of such measures is the adoption of the Law on the Protection of National Sovereignty by the Hungarian National Assembly in December 2023. Under this act, a new state administration body, the Office for the...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries Brief 1160

Jakub Bornio | Aleksandra Poznar - Visegrad Team

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s official visit to Russia

On 5 July 2024 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and representatives of the Hungarian government made an official visit to Russia, where they met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the official part of the meeting, they discussed both Hungarian-Russian bilateral relations and the international situation. V. Orbán, although not delegated to represent the entire...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1159

Jakub Bornio | Aleksandra Poznar - Visegrad Team

Hungarian Prime Minister’s first visit to Kyiv since the outbreak of war

On 2 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán paid an official visit to Kyiv for the first time in 12 years. It was also the first time since the outbreak of the full-scale war with Russia, where high-level government talks were held. The visit also included a meeting between V. Orbán and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. They primarily discussed the issues of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1149

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Lithuania: a new vision for national energy security by 2050

In Lithuania, the government has adopted a new energy security strategy with a vision extending to 2050. The document, known as the National Energy Independence Strategy, is currently awaiting parliamentary approval. This new strategy is expected to enhance energy independence and enable the export of surplus electricity. The energy transition process is anticipated to accelerate...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1135

Jakub Bornio | Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Finland’s response to the Russian Federation’s provocations regarding the change of maritime borders in the Baltic Sea

On 22 May 2024, the Russian Federation presented a draft that could lead to the revision of the internal waters boundary in the Baltic Sea. Despite its removal from the agenda of the legislative work of the Russian Duma, the proposal has nevertheless caused considerable concern among neighbouring states due to the potential revision of bilateral and multilateral agreements...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1134

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

The West’s military aid for Ukraine – crisis management in lieu of strategy

Unlocking the aid package for Ukraine by the United States will stabilize the front line and halt Russian advances, but it will not lead to a breakthrough in the war nor to Ukraine regaining the strategic initiative. Western support is scattered, unsystematic and often driven by ad hoc political considerations. Taking into account Russia’s resources and actions, aid for Ukraine...

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