IEŚ Commentaries | Institute of Central Europe

Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1306

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Drone coalition: Latvia’s ambitions to boost security and international image

The international initiative to provide Ukraine with unmanned aerial systems, known as the Drone Coalition, was established on 14 February 2024 at the initiative of Latvia and currently comprises 18 countries. Its aim is to provide Ukraine with drones and assistance in training personnel in the use of new technologies. From Latvia’s point of view, the coalition is also an...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1275

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Estonia: Controversy over changes to local elections law

Local elections will be held in Estonia in October 2025. The Riigikogu (Parliament) is currently considering a draft amendment to the Constitution that would restrict the right to vote in local elections for citizens of Russia, Belarus and/or persons of undetermined citizenship. While the aim of the amendment is to deprive citizens of hostile and aggressive states of the right to...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1246

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

New dimensions of Polish-Lithuanian cooperation: advanced technologies for security and innovative economy

The new Lithuanian government announces the continuation of the strategic partnership with Poland to ensure regional security. In the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the US presidential elections, this relationship could become even closer. In the coming years, the areas of Polish-Lithuanian cooperation will be expanded to include the innovative defence industry...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries Brief 1289

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Russia’s Triumph

Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin was in fact a success for Russia. There are many indications that the Trump administration’s policy will lead to rejecting all of Ukraine’s expectations while taking into account Russia’s demands. Such actions by Washington weaken the cohesion of the West and deepen transatlantic tensions, while Russia gains legitimacy for...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1277

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Donald Trump, the 47th President of the USA – Ukraine’s fears and hopes

Donald Trump, as the 47th president of the United States, raises both fears and hopes in Ukraine. Although Kyiv was skeptical about Trump’s previous term, disappointment with Joe Biden’s policies has led to greater openness towards the new US leadership. Ukrainians expect that Trump, attached to his image as a strong leader, will take more decisive action against Russia. At...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1263

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

Russia’s Cognitive Actions Targeting Poland Through the Use of Migrants from the Post-Soviet Area

In their hybrid actions against Poland, Russian intelligence services have been known to carry out various acts of sabotage. Due to the increase in immigration to Poland of the population from the post-Soviet area, it has become a potential asset for the Russian services in their cognitive activities. These activities are aimed at creating specific mental processes, attitudes and...

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Balkan Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1261

Vladimir Mitev - Balkan Team

Why does everyone win from the elimination of land border controls in Southeastern Europe?

The full Schengen area accession of Bulgaria and Romania will move Southeastern Europe closer to the center of Europe. Bulgarians and Romanians deserve to have the full status of European citizens in spite of competing geopolitical visions for their region. Even if the “fortress” mindset is strong in the region, the fall of the border is a huge success for the mentality of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1255

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Poland’s Northern Policy and Nordic-Baltic Cooperation

The Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) represents a dynamic model of regional cooperation that has united the five Nordic and three Baltic states in security, development and solidarity efforts since the 1990s. The evolution of NB8’s areas of cooperation – from supporting the Baltic states’ post-Soviet transition to current priorities like defense policy, cybersecurity, and energy...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1117

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

Nuclear deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank

Since 2014, the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation have concentrated their efforts on securing the so-called eastern flank. These efforts have thus far lacked elements of nuclear deterrence. However, the inability to effectively influence NATO has led to an increase in the use of ‘nuclear blackmail’ by Russia. Considering these circumstances, it is...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1236

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Sweden’s Security Policy: Operationalising Its Role in NATO

Upon joining NATO in March 2024, Sweden embarked on the process of integrating into the Alliance’s missions (including deterrence and defence) and embedding within NATO’s political and military structures. The centre-right coalition government led by Ulf Kristersson has significantly raised defence spending, reaching 2.14% of GDP in 2024. Over the next few years, priorities...

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Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1234

Jakub Bornio - Visegrad Team

NATO defence ministers meet their Indo-Pacific counterparts. Towards a global alliance?

In October 2024, the very first meeting of NATO and Indo-Pacific defence ministers took place. The event reflected the deepening practical cooperation between the partners from the two poles of Eurasia, which was intensified by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite the geographical distance between the two areas, their security systems are more interconnected...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1220

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Two Years of Ulf Kristersson’s Government in Sweden: A Shift in Migration Policy and the Fight Against Crime

The minority coalition government of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in power in Sweden since October 2022, has faced significant challenges over the past two years, particularly in tackling organised crime. The policies introduced so far – such as stricter immigration laws and a reduction in refugee intake – have contributed to improving security but have also led to a...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1211

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Ukraine: limited prospects for Azerbaijan to fill the gap left by Russian natural gas

As of January 1, 2025, the five-year Russian-Ukrainian agreement from 2019 on the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine will expire. This will significantly impact the availability and price of natural gas in Europe during the upcoming heating season. While Azerbaijan could potentially help fill the gap left by Russian supplies, the chances of this are limited....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1210

Marlena Gołębiowska | Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Estonia: the concept of a ‘personal state’

In 2024, Estonia, one of the world’s leaders in digitalisation, announced the next stage in the development of its public administration. The concept of a ‘personal state’ (Est. personale riik) is intended to elevate the relationship between citizens and the administration to a new level. The state aims not only to respond to citizens’ needs, but also to anticipate...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1207

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Intensification of natural gas cooperation between the Baltic States and Finland

For many years, the Baltic States and Finland have actively worked to strengthen energy security, focusing on the creation of a unified natural gas market, increasing trade, and—since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine—coordinating anti-crisis measures in the energy sector. One key aspect of this effort was the adoption of amendments to Latvia’s Energy Act...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1204

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Russians banned from buying property in states of the Baltic Sea region

The countries of the Baltic Sea region have been of interest to Russian entrepreneurs and investors for years due to their geographical proximity and dynamic economic development. As a result, some real estate located near strategic facilities is currently owned by Russians, posing a challenge to the security of the countries in the region. Bans on the purchase of land by citizens...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1202

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

Poland’s Presidency in the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR)

On 1 July 2024, Poland assumed the annual presidency of the European Union Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR), which will last until June 2025. In addition to advancing projects aligned with the three primary priorities – protecting the sea, fostering regional integration, and enhancing prosperity – Poland intends to improve regional security and increase cooperation...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1191

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Croatia’s Oil Infrastructure: A Key Element of Central European Energy Security

Due to its strategic geographical location and existing infrastructure, Croatia plays a critical role in the supply of crude oil to refineries in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia. The Omišalj crude oil terminal and the Adria pipeline are particularly significant in this regard. The importance of this infrastructure has grown since the outbreak of the...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1187

Damian Szacawa - Baltic Team

“Soft security” in the Baltic Sea Region: regional cooperation to enhance societal resilience and critical infrastructure protection

The Nordic states consider critical infrastructure protection as part of their comprehensive security. The long-standing tradition of trans-border cooperation in this area will facilitate the implementation of the EU’s Critical Entities Resilience (CER) Directive. The exchange of experience and practical operational cooperation within regional structures (Nordic Council of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1185

Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Expansion of natural gas infrastructure in Southern Europe

The process of expanding energy transport capacity is currently underway in Southern Europe, with a particular focus on the natural gas market. Since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, the primary goal has been to ensure greater diversification of natural gas sources and supply routes to Central European countries. Given the reduced availability of natural gas...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1180

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Digital Ukraine – the idea of modernizing the state

The digitization process in Ukraine gained momentum only after Volodymyr Zelensky and his entourage took power in 2019. It was then assumed that the “digitalization” of the state would help bridge the civilizational gap between Ukraine and the West and accelerate the modernization of the economy and public institutions. Within a few years, significant success was achieved....

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1179

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Civil defence system in Estonia

The civil defence system in Estonia is part of a comprehensive model of security, in which society actively participates in the process of building the country’s resilience and is able to respond independently to military and non-military challenges. The peculiarities of the country’s civil defence system are: 1) the use of innovative communication solutions; 2) the...

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Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1176

Aleksandra Poznar | Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team, Visegrad Team

Ukraine has restricted crude oil transit via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline

In June 2024, the Ukrainian authorities expanded their list of sanctioned entities to include Lukoil, which supplies crude oil to MOL Group refineries. This led to the suspension of crude oil supplies in mid-July 2024 to the Bratislava (Slovakia) and Százhalombatta (Hungary) plants. Both plants, thanks to the derogations they received in 2022 for sanctions imposed by the European...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1175

Marlena Gołębiowska - Baltic Team

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania under the excessive deficit procedure

After the pandemic-related loosening of fiscal rules – in the new framework following the reform – the EU’s excessive deficit procedure is returning. On 26 July 2024, the Council of the European Union decided to initiate it against seven member states, including three from Central Europe: Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. This is the result of failing to meet the deficit...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries Brief 1172

Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Estonia: priorities of the Kristen Michal’s government

On 23 July 2024, the government of Prime Minister Kristen Michal was sworn in at an extraordinary meeting of the Riigikogu after Kaja Kallas was nominated as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (“IEŚ Brief Commentaries”, no. 1167). Kristen Michal, Minister of Climate in Kaja Kallas’ government and previously Minister of Economy and Infrastructure...

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