Russia’s Triumph

Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin was in fact a success for Russia. There are many indications that the Trump administration’s policy will lead to rejecting all of Ukraine’s expectations while taking into account Russia’s demands. Such actions by Washington weaken the cohesion of the West and deepen transatlantic tensions, while Russia gains legitimacy for aggression, strengthens its international position and, as a result, will probably sharpen its demands.

Ahead of the annual Munich Security Conference (scheduled for February 14-16, 2025), visits by senior US officials were expected in Europe, also in the context of talks on Ukraine. Given the divergent and changing signals coming from Washington, these expectations were accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty. On February 12, Donald Trump announced that he had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, which would result in the immediate commencement of peace negotiations. On the same day, during a visit to Brussels, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ruled out Ukraine’s membership in NATO and declared that US forces would not participate in any peacekeeping operations in Ukraine, and that European countries would be responsible for this, but not within NATO (this would therefore mean excluding Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and de facto dismantling the alliance’s collective defense mechanism).

In Europe, the main reaction was to the conversation between Trump and Putin. European leaders stressed that both Ukraine and Europe must participate in any peace talks. The Ukrainian authorities reacted with restraint, realizing that the fate of the war, as well as the functioning and survival of Ukraine, depended to a large extent on the attitude of the United States (which had already demanded access to Ukrainian raw materials worth $500 billion in exchange for continued support).

Commentary

At the moment, it is too early to draw long-term conclusions, and it is also far from the negotiations announced by Trump that would lead to a ceasefire or an end to the war. Nevertheless, the actions taken by the United States against Russia and Ukraine fundamentally change the situation and the balance of power.

They confirm Trump’s aversion to multilateral cooperation and deepen the “transatlantic gap” between the US and Europe, thereby weakening Western cohesion – contradicting Trump’s earlier claims about the need to act “together” while confirming concerns about the lack of a strategic and predictable course for US foreign policy. This is a very worrying signal for Europe, especially the states of Central Europe, including Poland – against which Russia is already making threats. Above all, however, it is terrible news for Ukraine. Trump’s election was accompanied by certain hopes and expectations in Ukraine (IEŚ Commentaries, no. 1277), but when the day after taking office as president he froze (in an atmosphere of manipulation and lies that resonated worldwide) American development aid, including for Ukraine, these hopes began to give way to growing concerns.

Russia, on the other hand, has found itself in its most favorable situation in three years thanks to the actions of the Trump administration. Until now, a potential peace process had been prevented by the extremely divergent expectations of both sides. Ukraine demanded a return to the borders from before the annexation of Crimea and security guarantees, primarily NATO membership – these expectations were rejected by Trump. Russia demanded (at least) recognition of its territorial gains in Ukraine and its neutral status – Trump granted these demands. In this way, the Kremlin can announce to the Russian public its victory, which Putin needs in the face of the deteriorating domestic situation in Russia. Externally, regardless of the further development of the situation, Russia will escalate its demands and impose increasingly harsh conditions, assuming that it has found itself in a favorable negotiating position.

Moreover, Russia has achieved several goals thanks to the attitude of the Trump administration:

• it de facto gained legitimacy for its aggression against Ukraine – in the rhetoric of the US President, both Russia and Ukraine are responsible for the war;
• it will be able to position itself as the side that wants peace – if Ukraine rejects the dictate and wants to continue fighting, it will be accused of seeking to continue bloodshed and of unwillingness to make peace;
• it has emerged from international isolation, which will be perceived both in Russia and in the world as a sign of the West’s capitulation in the Ukraine matter – and will automatically strengthen worldwide anti-Western and authoritarian forces;
• any peace negotiations are to be held between Russia and the United States, bypassing other entities (states and international institutions), but above all Ukraine itself – this is the realization of the concept of a concert of powers pushed by Russia and confirmation of Russia’s “regaining” its “rightful” international position;
• Ukraine has been objectified, which fits into the Russian narrative that denies Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to self-determination.

[Photo KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters / Forum]