Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1670

24 July 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine: the price of centralisation of power

The reshuffle of Ukraine’s government in July 2026 proved to be much more than a personnel change. The dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov triggered the largest political crisis since the beginning of the full-scale war, revealing the growing tensions between state efficiency and the logic of concentrating power in the presidential center. These events could have...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1669

23 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Neptun Deep Project and the Changing Architecture of the Natural Gas Market in South-Eastern Europe

Neptun Deep is one of the most important energy projects currently under development in the European part of the Black Sea. Its launch, planned for 2027, could significantly alter Romania’s position in the natural gas market. The project, implemented by OMV Petrom and Romgaz, is expected to increase domestic production, strengthen Romania’s energy security, and create new...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1656

8 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure

Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and fuel infrastructure are no longer limited to isolated sabotage or military operations; they are now producing measurable economic and organisational effects. A series of attacks on refineries, fuel depots, transhipment terminals, and elements of transmission infrastructure have led to reduced operations at some facilities, disruptions in...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1652

2 July 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

European Union Sanctions on Russian Natural Gas Supplies in the Context of the Security of Central European Countries

The entry into force of successive EU restrictions on imports of Russian natural gas is intended to complete the process of phasing out supplies from Russia and to permanently reshape the structure of the European market for this commodity. The REPowerEU regulation, adopted in early 2026, provides for a gradual phase-out of imports: from a ban on concluding new contracts, through...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1647

24 June 2026

Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine’s Growing Importance as a “Security Provider”

The war with Russia has transformed not only the Ukrainian armed forces but also Ukraine’s position in the European security system. Thanks to the dynamic development of its defence industry, military technologies, and unique experience gained on the battlefield, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself not as a recipient of Western aid, but as a partner capable of...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1640

16 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Armenia after the Elections: A Strategic Pivot and Prospects for Peace

Elections in Armenia are most often portrayed from an international perspective as a contest between the pro-Western government and the pro-Russian opposition. Similarly, the prospects for restructuring the country’s security architecture and its long-term geostrategy are interpreted in this two-dimensional manner. Nevertheless, the outlook for further regional change is far...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1637

8 June 2026

Bartłomiej Krzysztan - Eastern Team

Elections in Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan Remains in Power

On Sunday, 7 June, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party, the Civil Contract, securing victory for the third time in a row. This result is likely to mean a continuation of the political course adopted by Armenia in recent years, in both foreign and domestic policy. Nevertheless, the results confirm deep social polarisation,...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1632

2 June 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Czechia’s Efforts to Strengthen National Fuel Security

In recent years, Czechia’s oil sector has come under significant geopolitical and infrastructure-related pressure, prompting the government to take steps to strengthen national fuel security. These measures have focused on phasing out Russian crude oil, diversifying supply sources, expanding transmission infrastructure, and increasing the role of the state in stock management...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1620

19 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Reconfiguring Gas Security in Southern Europe

In recent years, the architecture of energy security in the countries of Southern Europe has undergone a significant transformation, driven by supply shocks and shifts in the international environment. A region that for decades depended heavily on energy supplies from Russia is now playing an increasingly important role as a transit and balancing area for new natural gas flows...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1615

13 May 2026

Michał Paszkowski | Andrzej Szabaciuk | Jędrzej Jander - Eastern Team

Ukrainian Strikes on Targets Deep Inside the Territory of the Russian Federation

In the ongoing war, Russia has consistently targeted Ukraine’s energy sector. In response—and as part of a strategy aimed at reducing the aggressor’s financial revenues from energy exports—Ukraine has increasingly shifted its kinetic operations towards Russian energy infrastructure, including refineries, crude oil terminals, transhipment facilities, and pipelines. In the...

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