Institute of Central Europe/IES Commentaries

IES Commentaries

Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1607
4 May 2026
Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Ukraine after Orbán’s defeat – restraint and waiting

Péter Magyar’s victory and Viktor Orbán’s defeat were greeted with cautious optimism in Ukraine. While the disappearance of one of Kyiv’s main critics within the EU opens up new opportunities for cooperation, reactions from politicians and experts remain reserved. From a Ukrainian perspective, this represents not a breakthrough, but rather a correction to Budapest’s...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1602
29 April 2026
Aida Topić - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

From Election Results to Political Uncertainty: Coalition Formation after Slovenia’s 2026 Elections

The 2026 parliamentary elections in Slovenia failed to produce a clear winner, thereby opening space for complex coalition negotiations. The narrow margin between the two leading parties, Svoboda and SDS, combined with their substantial ideological differences, constrains viable coalition options and contributes to heightened political uncertainty. Election Results. According to...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1598
23 April 2026
Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

Rebuilding Natural Gas Storage Levels in Central Europe under Challenging Geopolitical Conditions

The replenishment of natural gas stocks in Europe during 2026 is taking place amid heightened uncertainty, driven by simultaneous disruptions to the availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The low post‑winter storage fill level (around 29%) amplifies the scale of the challenge, while adverse price signals reduce the incentive for...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1594
20 April 2026
Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The TISZA Party’s Victory and the Potential Shift in Hungary’s Energy Policy

A victory for the TISZA party (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt) in Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary elections could trigger an adjustment to the country’s energy policy, which in recent years has been grounded in dependence on supplies of Russian commodities (crude oil and natural gas) and in nuclear cooperation under the Paks II project. The scope and pace of any changes, however,...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1585
10 April 2026
Robert Rajczyk - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

The Prime Minister of Hungary’s Political Offensive at the End of the Election Campaign

The organisation of the convention for the populist right from the Patriots for Europe political group, the conservative CPAC conference, and the visit to Hungary of the American vice president are all elements of building an international position for Viktor Orbán and mobilising the electoral base before the parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12. Polls, conducted by...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1581
7 April 2026
Nora Gigineishvili - Eastern Team

From EU Standard Institutional Reform to Party Control – The transformation of Georgia’s Public Service

Georgia’s foreign policy shift has resulted in multiple repressive and undemocratic measures aimed at suppressing the protests triggered by the decision to halt EU accession negotiations. The civil service became one of the targets of the coercive apparatus for systemic subordination, transforming it from an institution striving for alignment with European standards into an...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1576
31 March 2026
Jakub Olchowski - Eastern Team

Drones do not win wars

The war in Ukraine demonstrates the growing role of digital technologies, unmanned systems, and electronic warfare. The mass use of drones, supported by a developed IT sector and efficient institutional adaptation, has allowed Ukraine to effectively limit its opponent’s military advantage. At the same time, even the most advanced technological solutions do not eliminate the...

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Eastern Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1571
25 March 2026
Michał Paszkowski - Eastern Team

The Crisis of Crude Oil Availability in Slovakia and Its Implications for the Regional Fuel Market

In 2026, liquid fuel tourism in Slovakia became one of the key manifestations of mounting tensions in the regional liquid fuel market, stemming from disruption on the crude oil supply side. Relatively low diesel prices – maintained despite the suspension of crude oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, and the conflict in the Middle East – created strong demand-side...

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Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1568
24 March 2026
Szczepan Czarnecki - Central and South-Eastern Europe Team

Czech Republic: New Budget Amid Disputes over the Deficit and Defense Spending

On 11 March this year, the Parliament of the Czech Republic adopted the government’s budget bill for 2026, bringing to an end a three-month period of provisional budgeting. Despite opposition resistance—effectively deprived of any real influence over the final shape of the budget—the law was passed and subsequently signed on 20 March by President Petr Pavel, who at the same...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1563
18 March 2026
Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The Impact of the Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz on Transatlantic Cohesion

Since 14 March 2026, Donald Trump has been urging European NATO allies to engage in efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The coercive tone employed by the President of the United States in his appeal to NATO member states, coupled with the unequivocal rejection of his proposal by European leaders, constitutes yet another manifestation of tensions...

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