IES Commentaries

Airspace violations in Central and Eastern European countries in the context of the war in Ukraine

Due to the outbreak of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there have been several incidents involving air and missile threats, as well as air defence systems in the airspace of Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). Certainly, some of these incidents have been intentional provocations by Russia against NATO, Ukraine or Moldova, aimed at pursuing a specific...

Natural gas and crude oil markets in Central European countries in 2023

Central European countries in 2023 were taking active steps to strengthen energy security, which was a difficult process. A key strategic objective was to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons supplies from the Russian Federation by initiating new investments and continuing those already underway. Importantly, there are still countries on the continent that cooperate with Russia in...

Northern Macedonia expands natural gas supply infrastructure

Year 2023: The State of the Central European Economies

In 2023, five Central European economies (Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Latvia, and the Czech Republic) are expected to end the year in a state of recession, while four (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) are facing double-digit average annual inflation. Furthermore, as many as seven countries in the region are projected to record budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP....

Nothing New in the East? Consequences of the Slowdown of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

The lack of success in the counteroffensive has sparked a lively debate in Ukraine regarding the situation on the front and the overall state of the country. The prolonged war of attrition is advantageous for the Russian Federation, which has the necessary resources to continue its aggression. Russia counts on weakening Kyiv as well as tiring its allies and reducing the scale of...

Impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on crude oil supplies to Bulgaria and Romania

The Russian-Ukrainian war has reoriented the refining sector in the Central European region, including Bulgaria and Romania. The crude oil processing plants operating in these countries had for years imported a large amount of crude oil from the Russian Federation. The change in international conditions has contributed to the activation of efforts to diversify crude oil supply...

International Competitiveness of Economies: The Baltic States

Competitiveness is a key element of the European Union’s development strategy. In all the Baltic states, a significant weakening of competitiveness is currently observed, primarily due to external factors over which these countries, as both small and open economies, have limited influence. At the same time, however, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to invest in the...

Uncertain future of Skulte LNG terminal project

There have been efforts in Latvia to build an LNG terminal in Skulte since 2016, but recent decisions by the government in Riga make the realisation of the investment uncertain. Even the damage in early October 2023 to the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the gas system of Estonia and Finland, has not changed the Latvian government’s approach to the Skulte LNG terminal....

Ukraine’s Defence Minister and His Entourage

In September 2023, a large-scale reorganisation of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine began. In the view of the authorities, the appointment of Rustem Umerov, an experienced economist and politician, as Minister of Defence was intended to ensure more effective management of the department and stem the tide of criticism against it. Subsequent personnel changes at the ministry may...

Middle Eastern problems of Ukraine

Although the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not significantly inhibit Western, especially American, military aid to Ukraine, it is in a difficult position. By supporting Israel, it will become the object of criticism from the Arab world – which Russia will use for propaganda purposes. By not supporting Israel, it risks deterioration of relations with Western...