IES Commentaries

Northern Macedonia expands natural gas supply infrastructure

Year 2023: The State of the Central European Economies

In 2023, five Central European economies (Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Latvia, and the Czech Republic) are expected to end the year in a state of recession, while four (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) are facing double-digit average annual inflation. Furthermore, as many as seven countries in the region are projected to record budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP....

Nothing New in the East? Consequences of the Slowdown of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

The lack of success in the counteroffensive has sparked a lively debate in Ukraine regarding the situation on the front and the overall state of the country. The prolonged war of attrition is advantageous for the Russian Federation, which has the necessary resources to continue its aggression. Russia counts on weakening Kyiv as well as tiring its allies and reducing the scale of...

Impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on crude oil supplies to Bulgaria and Romania

The Russian-Ukrainian war has reoriented the refining sector in the Central European region, including Bulgaria and Romania. The crude oil processing plants operating in these countries had for years imported a large amount of crude oil from the Russian Federation. The change in international conditions has contributed to the activation of efforts to diversify crude oil supply...

International Competitiveness of Economies: The Baltic States

Competitiveness is a key element of the European Union’s development strategy. In all the Baltic states, a significant weakening of competitiveness is currently observed, primarily due to external factors over which these countries, as both small and open economies, have limited influence. At the same time, however, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to invest in the...

Uncertain future of Skulte LNG terminal project

There have been efforts in Latvia to build an LNG terminal in Skulte since 2016, but recent decisions by the government in Riga make the realisation of the investment uncertain. Even the damage in early October 2023 to the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the gas system of Estonia and Finland, has not changed the Latvian government’s approach to the Skulte LNG terminal....

Ukraine’s Defence Minister and His Entourage

In September 2023, a large-scale reorganisation of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine began. In the view of the authorities, the appointment of Rustem Umerov, an experienced economist and politician, as Minister of Defence was intended to ensure more effective management of the department and stem the tide of criticism against it. Subsequent personnel changes at the ministry may...

Middle Eastern problems of Ukraine

Although the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not significantly inhibit Western, especially American, military aid to Ukraine, it is in a difficult position. By supporting Israel, it will become the object of criticism from the Arab world – which Russia will use for propaganda purposes. By not supporting Israel, it risks deterioration of relations with Western...

Russian mobilisation in occupied areas of Ukraine

Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Russian authorities have pursued a repressive policy towards the residents of the areas occupied by Russian forces. This policy initially affected the residents of Crimea and the controlled parts of Donbas in 2014, and since 2022, has extended to parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. One manifestation of these actions...

Romania strengthens cooperation with Ukraine

Romania and Ukraine have reached a level of mutual understanding hitherto unknown. The countries have managed to arrange relations on the most sensitive issues such as the problem of agricultural imports and the rights of national minorities. This provides the basis for the development of a stable security architecture in this part of the Black Sea region. The effect of the...