Institute of Central Europe/IES Commentaries

IES Commentaries

Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1516
30 January 2026
Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Where Is the Center of the Belarusian Opposition Today? The Relocation of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office

Since the 2020 presidential election, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has resided in Lithuania due to fears of political repression in Belarus. In mid-January 2026, she announced that she and her office would relocate to Warsaw. The main reason for this decision was the Lithuanian authorities’ decision to downgrade Tsikhanouskaya’s protective status,...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1515
28 January 2026
Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The United States National Defense Strategy and the Security of Central and Eastern Europe

The United States National Defense Strategy, published by the Department of War, operationalises and further specifies the assumptions of U.S. foreign policy articulated in the National Security Strategy. The Pentagon’s vision of the international environment assumes that U.S. policy will be guided by a doctrine of “practical realism”, the prioritisation of the Indo-Pacific...

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Collective Memory Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1514
28 January 2026
Agata Tatarenko - Collective Memory Team

The Powerless in Davos: Central European Motifs in Mark Carney’s Speech

The speech delivered by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Davos forum offered a contemporary interpretation of Václav Havel’s thought, particularly as articulated in the essay The Power of the Powerless. In diagnosing changes in the global order, Carney drew on Havel’s critique of life lived in pretense and conformity. From this perspective, the Canadian prime...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1513
28 January 2026
Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

The Central European Natural Gas Market in 2026

The Central European natural gas market will play a crucial role in ensuring the region’s overall energy security in 2026. Following the supply shock triggered by Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, countries in the region have gradually adapted their supply models to the new geopolitical realities. A key element of this transformation has been liquefied natural...

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Historical narrative and applied history team

IEŚ Commentaries 1510
26 January 2026
Jędrzej Piekara - Historical narrative and applied history team

Russian-Venezuelan Relations as a Factor in Russian Geopolitics[1]

In the decade after the Soviet collapse, Moscow’s room to manoeuvre in Latin America and the Caribbean was limited due to the scarcity of resources and reorientation of Russian diplomacy towards the West, which naturally lowered the region’s strategic weight in Russian thinking. The turn came in the early 2000s as a re-entry organised around reciprocity in the United States...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1509
26 January 2026
Marlena Gołębiowska | Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik - Baltic Team

Small Languages, Big Models. Baltic States’ Strategies in the Fight for Digital Sovereignty in the Age of AI

The development of generative artificial intelligence depends on the quality and scale of the corpora on which models are trained. For countries with limited linguistic data resources in the digital space, low representation in global datasets poses a risk of technological marginalisation. To counter this threat, the Baltic states are implementing a range of strategies to...

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Collective Memory Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1508
22 January 2026
Robert Rajczyk - Collective Memory Team

Competition for right-wing voters in Hungary

The leader of the opposition party, Respect and Freedom (Tisztelet és Szabadság, TISZA), is trying to expand TISZA’s electorate appeal to far-right voters; Péter Magyar is formulating a demand for a ban on the entry of workers from outside the EU, starting from June 1, 2026, if he wins this April’s parliamentary elections. Furthermore, he is pretending to be a defender of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1506
22 January 2026
Michał Paszkowski - Baltic Team

Hungarian MOL Takes Over Russian Shares in Serbian Company NIS

The declaration of intent by Gazprom Neft to sell its shares in the Serbian company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) to the Hungarian firm MOL[1] represents one of the most significant developments in the Central European fuel market in recent years. MOL’s entry in place of the Russian owner is expected to restore the operational continuity of the Pancevo refinery while...

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Collective Memory Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1500
15 January 2026
Agata Tatarenko - Collective Memory Team

From Historical Arguments to Cost Calculations: The Czech Public Debate on Russia’s War with Ukraine

The change of power in the Czech Republic did not lead to a fundamental shift in foreign policy toward Russia and the war in Ukraine; however, it clearly affected the way this policy has been legitimised in public debate. References to the historical experiences of 1938 and 1968 – which, after the annexation of Crimea and especially following Russia’s full-scale invasion of...

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Baltic Team

IEŚ Commentaries 1492
23 December 2025
Jakub Bornio - Baltic Team

The U.S. National Security Strategy and the Security of Central and Eastern Europe

The U.S. National Security Strategy, published by the administration of Donald Trump, is a fundamental document diagnosing changes in the international security environment and outlining the United States’ efforts to adapt to new geopolitical conditions. The Strategy’s assumptions are of key importance for the security of central and eastern European states, whose...

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