Since 2014, the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation have concentrated their efforts on securing the so-called eastern flank. These efforts have thus far lacked elements of nuclear deterrence. However, the inability to effectively influence NATO has led to an increase in the use of ‘nuclear blackmail’ by Russia. Considering these circumstances, it is...
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The authorities of the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia display openly pro-Russian attitudes and seek to deepen relations with the Russian Federation. Protests are organised during the visits of representatives of the authorities of the Republic of Moldova to the region. Gagauzia, controlled by the Ilan Șor political group, has become the most important Russian tool used...
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Although the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not significantly inhibit Western, especially American, military aid to Ukraine, it is in a difficult position. By supporting Israel, it will become the object of criticism from the Arab world – which Russia will use for propaganda purposes. By not supporting Israel, it risks deterioration of relations with Western...
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Since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Russian authorities have pursued a repressive policy towards the residents of the areas occupied by Russian forces. This policy initially affected the residents of Crimea and the controlled parts of Donbas in 2014, and since 2022, has extended to parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. One manifestation of these actions...
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The failed coup by the Wagnerites showed the weakness of the Russian state and personally humiliated Vladimir Putin. From his point of view, eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin was necessary. In this way, he wanted to show who was in control of the situation and warn potential rebels. In the short term, this may produce results, but in the long term, the political losses may be serious....
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At the turn of May and June 2023, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive. Aware of the high stakes and high expectations, both from the public and from Western partners, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to tone down excessive optimism. At the same time, hybrid instruments were also used to increase the chances of a counter-offensive by destabilising and causing chaos in Russia....
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The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) states, during their meeting in Wismar on June 1-2, 2023, concluded Germany’s one-year presidency of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS). The Presidency was driven by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the region. The ongoing discussion about the...
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Victory Day celebrated on 9 May is still the most important holiday in Russia, and at the same time an important instrument of the Kremlin’s policy, both internally and internationally. The Moscow celebrations in 2023 and Vladimir Putin’s speech showed that Russia is in a very difficult military and economic situation. Despite this, Russia’s ruling elites intend to...
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also brought a number of consequences for regions away from the conflict. One such area is the Arctic, which includes, among others, the northern part of the Nordic states. Within the Arctic Council (AC), political cooperation with Russia has been temporarily put on hold, while part of the work of the Council is expected to resume once Norway...
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The entry into force on December 5, 2022 of European Union sanctions against Russia, which prevent the import of crude oil from that country by sea, has forced refiners in Europe, including those in Central Europe, to seek alternative grades, including from Kazakhstan. On one hand refineries in Germany are counting on crude oil supplies from that country, but the direction of...
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