IEŚ Policy Papers 7/2025
Serhii Lysenko | Andrzej Szabaciuk
ISBN: 978-83-68760-06-4
Liczba stron: 51
Format:
Wydanie: Lublin 2025
Opis:
Executive summary
■ The strategic logic of demographic engineering
The Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories constitutes a centralised state policy of “biopolitical engineering” designed to fundamentally alter the ethnic and social composition of the region. Unlike traditional military occupations focused on security, this operation prioritises the total management of the local population’s biological existence. The overarching objective is to render the reintegration of these territories into Ukraine demographically and socially impossible by systematically replacing the indigenous Ukrainian population with loyal subjects from the Russian Federation.
■ Radicalisation of control methods
Following the failure of initial intelligence assessments that predicted rapid capitulation, the occupation administration shifted from a strategy of co-optation to one of systemic pacification. This transition necessitated the establishment of a pervasive “climate of fear”, enforced through the arbitrary detention of community leaders, journalists, and veterans. In regions with high resistance, such as Kyiv and Chernihiv, this manifested as direct physical elimination and mass atrocities, whereas in the south, it evolved into a structured system of administrative terror.
■ The mechanism of filtration and deportation
A core instrument of this policy is the “filtration” system – a mandatory and abusive security screening process used to segregate the population. Residents who fail these screenings face detention or forcible transfer to the Russian Federation. This mechanism serves a dual purpose: the neutralisation of dissent and the facilitation of mass deportations, particularly of children, whose removal is calculated to sever the generational continuity of the Ukrainian national identity.
■ Weaponisation of citizenship and “civil death”
The occupation has weaponised the legal status of residents, transforming the Russian passport from a travel document into a prerequisite for survival. Access to life-sustaining resources, including insulin and humanitarian aid, is strictly conditioned on naturalisation. Recent legislation has codified this coercion, stipulating that residents without Russian citizenship by 1 July 2024, will be classified as “foreign citizens”, stripping them of property rights and subjecting them to potential deportation.
■ Settler colonialism and economic incentives
To consolidate control, Russia is implementing a state-sponsored program of settler colonialism. The Kremlin actively incentivises the migration of Russian citizens and Central Asian labour to the occupied territories through preferential economic instruments, such as mortgages at 2% per annum and “residential certificates”. This influx of new residents is physically accommodated through the seizure of real estate belonging to displaced or deported Ukrainians, creating a new demographic reality on the ground.
■ Institutional dismantling and replacement
The occupier systematically dismantles Ukrainian governance structures, replacing them with a vertical of power staffed by imported Russian officials (“Varangians”) and coerced local collaborators. This administrative substitution extends to the educational and legal systems, ensuring that all public institutions function as vectors for Russian state ideology. The recruitment of local staff often relies on leveraging compromised individuals or applying severe duress to essential workers, such as emergency responders.
Pełny tekst publikacji: PDF
