IEŚ Policy Papers 9/2025
ISBN: 978-83-68760-08-8
Liczba stron: 55
Format:
Opis:
Executive summary
■ Historical roots of the territorial dispute
The region of Transcarpathia serves as the historical focal point of Hungarian-Ukrainian tensions. Originally part of the Kingdom of Hungary (Crown of St. Stephen) until the Treaty of Trianon (1920), it underwent a forced Magyarisation process in the late 19th century, resulting in a significant increase in the Hungarian population share (from over 105,000 in 1880 to more than 184,000 in 1910). Following World War I, the region was incorporated into Czechoslovakia, despite Hungarian attempts to retain the territory through autonomy proposals like Ruszka-Krajna. The brief Hungarian annexation in 1939 and the subsequent Soviet annexation in 1945 led to demographic shifts that marginalised the Hungarian population, setting the stage for modern grievances regarding minority rights.
■ Post-Soviet autonomy attempts and early cooperation
In the final phase of the USSR (1991), 72% of Transcarpathian residents voted in a referendum in favour of autonomous status – a move supported by both local Hungarians and Rusyns but ultimately rejected by Kyiv’s central authorities. Despite this setback, early bilateral relations were relatively stable, with Hungary supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations until 2014. However, the demographic decline of the Hungarian minority continued, dropping from over 150,000 in 2001 to under 131,000 by 2017, largely due to emigration to the EU.
■ Escalation over minority rights (2017–2019)
Relations deteriorated significantly following Kyiv’s legislative moves to strengthen the state language, specifically the 2017 Education Law and the 2019 Language EUR loan to Ukraine, during which Hungary refused participation in joint liability mechanisms.
■ Deepening diplomatic isolation and hostile rhetoric
By late 2025, relations reached a nadir, with Orbán labelling EU summits as “war councils” and questioning who the true aggressor in the conflict was. While forcing tactical concessions from the EU, this stance isolated Hungary diplomatically, alienating regional partners like Poland within the Visegrád Group. Concurrently, Hungarian state media propagated narratives aligning with Russian propaganda, portraying Ukraine as a “failed state” or a puppet of the West.
■ Future scenarios linked to political shifts
The future trajectory of the dispute is now heavily dependent on external and internal political changes rather than bilateral diplomacy. Orbán is betting on a shift in US policy under Donald Trump to validate his scepticism toward Ukraine, predicting a partition of the country. Internally, the rise of the opposition Tisza Party (leading Fidesz by 4% in December 2025 polls) suggests a potential future pivot back to EU-aligned policies, while corruption scandals in Kyiv and potential elections in Ukraine introduce further variables to the equation.
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