IEŚ Policy Papers 6/2025
Redakcja: Piotr Oleksy
ISBN: 978-83-67678-95-7
Liczba stron:
Format: 140x230
Wydanie: Lublin 2025
Opis:
The European Union and NATO have become increasingly aware of the strategic importance of the Black Sea region. Analytical studies devoted to this area now use terms such as “strategic frontier”, “strategic battleground”, or “focal point” of security and influence. This new perspective is the result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began with the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Russia’s aggressive imperialism gave it a strategic advantage in the Black Sea for some time. However, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reversed this trend. As a result, three processes took place, reshaping the balance of power in the region.
Firstly, Ukraine managed to defend the western part of its coastline and then significantly curtailed Russia’s capabilities in the Black Sea. This also led to a widespread realisation of the importance of Black Sea transport routes, which are crucial for both the efficiency of the Ukrainian economy and global food security, and offer substantial development opportunities for other countries in the region. Secondly, a new dynamic and a new approach to the Black Sea have emerged in the policies and actions of the countries located on its coast. This has also had a significant impact on their bilateral relations with Ukraine. Thirdly, for the West – which has rediscovered the importance of the Black Sea for its own strategic capabilities – Ukraine has become the most important partner and broker of its interests in the region.
Currently, a dynamic favourable to Ukraine, the EU, and NATO has emerged in the Black Sea region. At the same time, the region remains a mosaic of diverse cultures – including strategic cultures – and visions of the development of the international order. This policy paper presents the importance of the Black Sea for Ukraine, outlines the Black Sea strategies of regional partners – Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia – and explores how they perceive their own relations with Kyiv. We have sought to make the case studies multifaceted, presenting the region’s place and bilateral relations in the strategic culture of the analysed countries, their economic and energy interests, reactions to the geopolitical dynamics of recent years, as well as internal political factors that influence attitudes toward the region and Ukraine.
This analysis shows that Russia’s imperial policy has led to greater strategic synergy among the countries of the region. However, it also indicates that maintaining and deepening this synergy – which is crucial for Ukraine and the West – will depend on many external and local factors.
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