NATO Eastern Flank Countries’ Counterbalancing and Containment Strategy and the Pursuit for a Peaceful Solution in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Strategia równoważenia i powstrzymywania państw wschodniej flanki NATO a dążenie do pokojowego rozwiązania w wojnie rosyjsko-ukraińskiej

Abstrakt: Until 2024, few policymakers in NATO countries stressed the importance of a peaceful solution in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Exceptions were the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia. The dominant NATO strategy was based on counterbalancing and containment in response to Russia, with an aim to support the defensive capabilities of Ukraine, and, rhetorically, to let Ukraine win the war against Russia. This strategy has been clearly conducted by most NATO eastern flank countries. However, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election moved the issue of a peaceful solution into the mainstream of diplomacy. This raises the question of how NATO eastern flank’s counterbalancing/containment strategy addresses this new political reality. The concept of this research is to consider theoretical dimensions of counterbalancing/containment and a ceasefire/peace, and to identify the current and foreseeable conditions for the continuation of the eastern flank’s dominant strategy. The paper proceeds as follows: First, it depicts the strategy of counterbalancing/containment conducted by (most) NATO eastern flank countries in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Second, the article theorises a ceasefire/peace in the context of the strategies of counterbalancing and containment. Third, the author considers the flexibility of NATO eastern flank’s strategy and the conditions under which it could adapt to US goals. Methodologically, the article seeks to combine the theoretical framework of foreign policy strategies with the empirical evidence of NATO eastern flank countries’ conduct and discourse, and consequently, to provide a diagnosis of the conditions of their strategy toward Russia. The conclusions stress the adaptation and flexibility of the eastern flank countries’ policies based on their current practice.

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