Zagrożenia nuklearne i „teoria szaleńca” w rosyjskiej retoryce wojennej

Nuclear threats and “madman theory” in the rhetoric of russian war

Olga Wasiuta

ORCID: Olga Wasiuta: 0000-0003-0481-1567

Afiliacja: Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie, Polska

Strony: 205-243

Wydanie: Lublin 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36874/RIESW.2022.4.9

Sposób cytowania: O. Wasiuta, Zagrożenia nuklearne i „teoria szaleńca” w rosyjskiej retoryce wojennej, „Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej” 20 (2022), z. 4, s. 205-243, DOI: https://doi.org/10.36874/RIESW.2022.4.9

Słowa kluczowe: , , , ,

Keywords: , , , ,

Abstrakt: Celem artykułu jest analiza „teorii szaleńca” – teorii politycznej powszechnie kojarzonej z polityką zagraniczną prezydenta USA Richarda Nixona – w rosyjskiej retoryce wojennej, szczególnie po 24 lutego 2022 r. Zgodnie z tą teorią przywódca kultywuje obraz szaleństwa, aby uwiarygodnić swoje groźby wykorzystania broni atomowej i skłonić wrogów do dwukrotnego zastanowienia się przed podjęciem jakiejś decyzji. Wraz z rosyjską inwazją na Ukrainę teoria szaleńca została przypomniana i ponownie jest stosowana do wyjaśniania coraz bardziej nieobliczalnego zachowania rosyjskiego prezydenta Władimira Putina, który 27 lutego 2022 r. nakazał swojemu ministrowi obrony i szefowi sztabu generalnego zainicjowanie specjalnych zadań bojowych przez jednostki odstraszania nuklearnego. Takie zachowanie Putina przywodzi na myśl to, co zostało opisane w polityce zagranicznej jako teoria szaleńca – poczucie, że ktoś jest zdolny do wszystkiego, jeśli nie może doprowadzić wojny do końca tak, jak chce.

Bibliografia:

„Zachem nam mir, yesli v nem ne budet Rossii?” – Kiselov, 27.02.2022, https://tjournal.ru/flood/547111-zachem-nam-mir-esli-v-nem-ne-budet-rossii-kiselev.

„Zachem nam takoy mir, yesli tam ne budet Rossii?” Putin – o global’noy katastrofe posle yadernogo udara, 07.03.2018, https://meduza.io/news/2018/03/07/zachem-nam-takoy-mir-esli-tam-ne-budet-rossii-putin-o-globalnoy-katastrofe-posle-yadernogo-udara.

77% rosiyan pidtrymuyut’ viynu v Ukrayini – opytuvannya „Levada-tsentr”, https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/77-rosiian-pidtrymuiut-viinu-v-ukraini-opytuvannia-levada-tsentr/.

Acharya A., Grillo E., War with Crazy Types, „Political Science Research and Methods”, vol. 3, issue 2, May 2015.

Adamovych O., Novaya „russkaya ruletka” – udar’ soseda tokom!, 31.10.2017, https://www.kp.ru/daily/26751/3781115/.

Antelava N., Lomashvili M., Making sense of nuclear threats and Nixon-era ‘Madman theory’ in Russian war rhetoric, 12.05.2022, https://www.codastory.com/newsletters/russia-nuclear-threats/.

Bielski L., Trąba M., Historia powszechna, Lubień 2003.

Bil’shist’ rosiyan pidtrymuyut’ viynu v Ukrayini, a vidpovidal’nist’ za zahybel’ lyudey pokladayut’ na Zakhid – opytuvannya, 29.04.2022, https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/04/29/novyna/suspilstvo/bilshist-rosiyan-pidtrymuyut-ijnu-ukrayini-a-vidpovidalnist-zahybel-lyudej-pokladayut-zaxid-opytuvannya.

Braw E., Putin is «Playing the Madman” to Trick the West, 04.01.2015, https://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/10/impeccable-logic-behind-putins-madman-strategy-318529.html.

Brown A., The Madman Political Theory: Explaining Acting Crazy For Political Leverage, From Nixon To Putin, 04.03.2022, https://moguldom.com/397364/the-madman-political-theory-explaining-acting-crazy-for-political-leverage-from-nixon-to-putin/.

Buncombe A., Ukraine: Putin declares war and warns foreign powers of unprecedented ‘consequences’ if they interfere, 24.02.2022, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-military-invade-b2022046.html.

Burr W., Kimball J.P., Nixon, Kissinger, and the Madman. Strategy during Vietnam War, 29.05.2015, https://networks.h-net.org/node/72044/pdf.

Burr W., Kimball J.P., Nixon’s Nuclear Spectre. Nixon’s Nuclear Specter: The Secret Alert of 1969, Madman Diplomacy, and the Vietnam War, University Press of Kansas, 2015.

Carroll J., Nixon’s madman strategy, 14.06.2005, http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/06/14/nixons_madman_strategy/.

Chivvis C.S., I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia–Ukraine war.

None are good, 08.03.2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories.

Chomu rosiyany pidtrymuyut’ viynu z Ukrayinoyu?, 12.03.2022, https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/chomu_rosijani_pidtrimujut_vijnu_z_ukrajinoju-6385.html.

Cohen R., The Escalation Fixation, 06.05.2022, https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/05/the-escalation-fixation.html.

Coll S., The Madman Theory of North Korea, 24.09.2017, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/02/the-madman-theory-of-north-korea.

Defiant Putin mauls Macron in Moscow. Russian president fires both barrels at NATO alliance, while Macron notes diplomacy with Russia carries ‘an element of ingratitude’, 07.02.2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/.

Dimitriadis D., Overton I., The ‘madman despot’ theory only serves to embolden Vladimir Putin, 25.04.2022, https://aoav.org.uk/2022/the-madman-despot-theory-only-serves-to-embolden-vladimir-putin/.

Ellsberg D., The Political Uses of Madness, Wykład wygłoszony w Lowell Institute of the Boston Public Library, https://ia800102.us.archive.org/20/items/ThePoliticalUsesOfMadness/ELS005-001.pdf.

Fishbain D.A., Fletcher J.R., Aldrich T.E., Davis J.H., Relationship between Russian roulette deaths and risk-taking behavior: a controlled study, „The American Journal of Psychiatry”, vol. 144, 1987, issue 5.

Graff G.M., The Madman and the Bomb. The nuclear launch process once haunted Nixon’s aides. 43 years later, is it finally time to reform the system?, 11.08.2017, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-richard-nixon-215478/.

Gromak V.I., Ritual’nyye plyaski vandalov, 19.05.2022, https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-05-19/3_1189_poland.html.

Haldeman H.R., DiMona J., The ends of power, New York 1978.

Heer J., Nixon Had His “Madman Theory”. Trump Is Just a Madman, 21.04.2017, https://newrepublic.com/article/142205/nixon-madman-theory-trump-just-madman..

Henry Kissinger at Davos: Ukraine should give up territory to Russia to reach peace, https://www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/eu-in-the-media/henry-kissinger-at-davos-ukraine-should-give-up-territory-to-russia-to-reach-peace/.

Hill F., Gaddy C.G., Mr. Putin. Operative in the Kremlin, Washington 2015.

Holz D., Mastermind or madman? Putin shows why the world needs new nuclear agreements, 17.03.2022, https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/mastermind-or-madman-putin-shows-why-the-world-needs-new-nuclear-agreements/.

Jankowicz M., Putin threatens West with ‘consequences greater than any you have faced in history’ if it intervenes in his invasion of Ukraine, 24.02.2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-threatens-worst-ever-consequences-if-west-intervenes-in-ukraine-2022-2?IR=T.

Kahn H., Thinking about the unthinkable, New York 1962.

Kalatur A., Na Zaporiz’kiy AES pozhezha cherez obstrily rosiyan: z’yavylys’ detali, 04.03.2022, https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/4/7327993/.

Karlovskyi D., The Foreign Ministry of Russia Threatens Poland with Nuclear Strike, 12.06.2022, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/12/7352076/.

Kimball D., Bugos S., Russia’s War on Ukraine and the Risk of Nuclear Escalation: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions, vol. 14, issue 3, 28.02.2022, https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-02/FAQ-russia-ukraine.

Kimball J.P., Trump’s Madman Gambit. History shows his nuclear threats will fail, 30.12.2016, https://www.usnews.com/opinion/world-report/articles/2016-12-30/donald-trumps-nuclear-madman-gambit-will-fail.

Kimball J., Burr W., Nixon, Thieu, and the Bomb: CIA Report Sheds Light on Richard Nixon’s Madman Diplomacy, 20.02.2018, https://unredacted.com/2018/02/20/thieu-and-the-bomb-cia-report-sheds-light-on-richard-nixons-madman-diplomacy/.

Kissinger chce przekazania Rosji terytorium. „Może oddacie Alaskę i Bawarię?”, 25.05.2022, https://www.tvp.info/60376062/henry-kissinger-wywolal-burze-lawina-komentarzy-po-kontrowersyjnej-propozycji-amerykanina.

Kostecki W., Zaczniemy wojnę w poniedziałek: kubański kryzys rakietowy 1962, Warszawa 2012.

Krepon M., Putin gives the mad man theory a try, 27.02.2022, https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1215106/putin-gives-the-mad-man-theory-a-try/.

Kuleba D., Rada Yevropy i „bozhevil’nyy”, 19.01.2018, https://zn.ua/ukr/international/rada-yevropi-i-bozhevilniy-266647_.html.

MAHATE pereviv Tsentr nadzvychaynykh sytuatsiy u rezhym 24/7 cherez sytuatsiyu na Zaporiz’kiy AES, 04.03.2022, https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-mahate-centr-nadzvychaynyh-sytuatsii-zaes/31735618.html.

Marten K., President Putin’s Rationality and Escalation in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, 09.03.2022, https://www.ponarseurasia.org/president-putins-rationality-and-escalation-in-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/.

McManus R.W., Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining, „Security Studies”, vol. 28, 2019, issue 5.

Morawiecki M., Russia’s monstrous ideology must be defeated. It is the equivalent of 20th-century communism and Nazism – and it poses a deadly threat to Europe, 10.05.2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/05/10/russias-monstrous-ideology-must-defeated/.

Naftali T., The Problem With Trump’s Madman Theory It didn’t work for Nixon. It’s even less likely to work now, 04.10.2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/madman-theory-trump-north-korea/542055/.

Nardelli A., Seputyte M., Follain J., Delfs A., EU Moves Toward Ousting Russia From SWIFT as Germany Shifts, 26.02.2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/eu-edges-toward-nuclear-option-of-blocking-russia-from-swift.

Nixon, Kissinger, and the Madman Strategy during Vietnam War, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb517-Nixon-Kissinger-and-the-Madman-Strategy-during-Vietnam-War/m.

Nycz M., Duda: Rosja musi zapłacić odszkodowania za to, co zniszczyła na Ukrainie, 13.05.2022, https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-duda-rosja-musi-zaplacic-odszkodowania-za-to-co-zniszczyla-n,nId,6022290#crp_state=1.

Polishchuk V., Zakhid maye pravo daty Ukrayini yaderni boyeholovky dlya zakhystu nezalezhnosti – yevrodeputat, 12.06.2022, https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/zapad-imeet-pravo-dat-ukraine-dernye-boegolovki-1655021054.html.

Prezydent pro zayavy Kissindzhera ta NYT: Zhyttya mil’yoniv ukrayintsiv khochut’ obminyaty na ilyuziyu myru, 26.05.2022, https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3492306-prezident-pro-zaavi-kissindzera-ta-nyt-zitta-miljoniv-ukrainciv-hocut-obminati-na-iluziu-miru.html.

Pryshchepa Y.A., Obstrily Zaporiz’koyi AES: pozhezhu vdalosya likviduvaty, 04.03.2022, https://suspilne.media/213592-obstrili-zaporizkoi-aes-pozezu-vdalosa-likviduvati/.

Putin B., „Zachem nam takoy mir, esli nie budet Rossyi”?, 07.03.2018, https://www.svoboda.org/a/29084688.html.

Putin na paradi v Moskvi zayavyv, shcho vtorhnennya v Ukrayinu bulo „zapobizhnym udarom”, 09.05.2022, https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-putin-9-travnia/31840869.html.

Putin nakazav pryvesty yaderni syly Rosiyi u pidvyshchenu boyovu hotovnist’: reaktsiya Biloho domu, 27.02.22, https://tsn.ua/svit/putin-nakazav-privesti-yaderni-sili-rosiyi-u-pidvischenu-boyovu-gotovnist-reakciya-bilogo-domu-1990816.html.

Putin V., Gevorkyan N., Timako N., First Person. An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Public Affairs, 2000.

Putin vidmovlyayet’sya slukhaty vlasnu rozvidku pislya provalu u viyni – Focus, 22.03.2022, https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/22/novyna/svit/putin-vidmovlyayetsya-sluxaty-vlasnu-rozvidku-pislya-provalu-vijni-focus.

Rachman G., Putin, Ukraine and the madman theory of diplomacy, „Financial Times”, 07.02.2022, https://www.ft.com/content/3d8b94e9-0db7-4aa5-ac6a-9fef2ce43ab6.

Rex Tillerson’s agonies, 05.10.2017, https://www.economist.com/united-states/2017/10/05/rex-tillersons-agonies.

Rice A., Daniel Ellsberg Is Still Thinking About the Papers He Didn’t Get to Leak, 28.11.2017, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/11/daniel-ellsberg-on-the-doomsday-machine.html.

Rosen J., Nichter L.A., Madman in the White House. Why looking crazy can be an asset when you’re staring down the Russians, 25.03.2014, https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/25/madman-in-the-white-house/.

Schelling T.C., The Strategy of Conflict, London 1960, http://elcenia.com/iamapirate/schelling.pdf.

Schulzinger R.D., Henry Kissinger. Doctor of diplomacy, New York 1989.

Sciutto J., The Madman Theory: Trump Takes On the World Hardcover, 11.08.2020, https://www.amazon.com/Madman-Theory-Trump-Takes-World/dp/0063005689.

Seitz S., Talmadge C., The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work, „The Washington Quarterly”, 2020, vol. 43(3), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2020.1810424.

Sherry M.S., In the Shadow of War, Yale University Press, 1995.

Sikorski R., Zachód ma prawo dać Ukrainie głowice nuklearne. Rosjanie odgrażają się, 12.06.2022, https://www.rp.pl/konflikty-zbrojne/art36498021-sikorski-zachod-ma-prawo-dac-ukrainie-glowice-nuklearne-rosjanie-odgrazaja-sie.

Slater J., Trump Is Using the Madman Theory in North Korea Policy Trump Is Using the Madman Theory in North Korea Policy, 3.06.2018, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-using-the-madman-theory-north-korea-policy-26097.

Sobenko N., Rosiya pohrozhuye „denatsyfikuvaty” Pol’shchu, 14.05.2022, https://suspilne.media/239409-rosia-pogrozue-denacifikuvati-polsu/.

Stepushova L., „Hiena” Evropy Pol’sha vtyahivaet mir v tret’yu mirovuyu voynu, 16.03.2022, https://www.pravda.ru/world/1690791-polska/.

Stevenson J., The Madness Behind Trump’s ‘Madman’ Strategy, New York Times, 26.10.2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/opinion/the-madness-behind-trumps-madman-strategy.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region.

Suri J., Donald Trump and the ‘Madman’ Playbook, 08.10.2017, https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-madman-strategy-north-korea-nuclear-weapons/.

Suri J., The Nukes of October: Richard Nixon’s Secret Plan to Bring Peace to Vietnam, 25.02.2008, http://www.wired.com/2008/02/ff-nuclearwar/ (discussing declassified documents that offered proof of the Madman Theory as well as the plans of October 1969).

Swan J., Scoop: Trump urges staff to portray him as „crazy guy”, 01.10.2017, https://www.axios.com/2017/12/15/scoop-trump-urges-staff-to-portray-him-as-crazy-guy-1513305888.

Taylor P., Inside Vladimir Putin’s head. Paranoid megalomaniac or rational actor? The Russian president’s mental puzzle, 27.02.2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-nato-nuclear-inside-putins-head/.

Tyshchenko K., U MZS RF natyaknuly, shcho mozhut’ zavdaty yadernoho udaru po Pol’shchi, 12.06.2022, https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/06/12/7352076/.

U Rosiyi pryhrozyly udarom po Pol’shchi za ideyu peredaty yaderni rakety Ukrayini, 12.06.2022, https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rossii-prigrozili-udarom-polshe-ideyu-peredat-1655045600.html.

United States and the Republic of Korea Sign Landmark Free Trade Agreement, 30.06.2007, http://www.ustr.gov/Document_Library/Press_Releases/2007/June/United_States_the_Republic_of_Korea_Sign_Lmark_Free_Trade_Agreement.html.

Volodyn V., Bayden i Zelenskyy voydut v istoriyu kak prezydenty, ustroivshye holodomor, 28.05.2022, http://duma.gov.ru/news/54441/http://duma.gov.ru/news/54441/.

Volodyn zayavil, chto SSHA pytayutsya vernut’ vlozhennye v Ukraynu sredstva, ustraivaya holodomor, 11.05.2022, https://tass.ru/politika/14594311?utm_source=ru.

Vstrecha s Prezidentom Belorussii Aleksandrom Lukashenko, 11.03.2022, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67963.

Walt S., Things Don’t End Well for Madmen. The president prizes „unpredictability”, but history isn’t on his side, 16.08.2017, https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/16/things-dont-end-well-for-madmen-trump-north-korea/.

Wasiuta O., The crime of genocide in Ukraine (1932-1933), [w:] The Concept of Genocide in International Criminal Law Developments after Lemkin, M. Odello, P. Łubiński (eds.), London 2020.

Welch D.A., Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change, Princeton University Press, 2005.

WION Web Team, Is Vladimir Putin using ‘madman theory’? US intel agencies ‘debating’ over Russian leader’s mental faculties, 01.03.2022, https://www.wionews.com/world/is-vladimir-putin-using-madman-theory-us-intel-agencies-debating-over-russian-leaders-mental-faculties-457920.

Wook-Sik C., Why the tactical nukes Russia, N. Korea are fixated on are more dangerous than strategic nukes, 27.04.2022, https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/english_editorials/1040638.html.

Zyblikiewicz L., USA, Warszawa 2004.

Słowa kluczowe: , , , ,