Zagrożenia nuklearne i „teoria szaleńca” w rosyjskiej retoryce wojennej

Nuclear threats and “madman theory” in the rhetoric of russian war

Abstrakt: Celem artykułu jest analiza „teorii szaleńca” – teorii politycznej powszechnie kojarzonej z polityką zagraniczną prezydenta USA Richarda Nixona – w rosyjskiej retoryce wojennej, szczególnie po 24 lutego 2022 r. Zgodnie z tą teorią przywódca kultywuje obraz szaleństwa, aby uwiarygodnić swoje groźby wykorzystania broni atomowej i skłonić wrogów do dwukrotnego zastanowienia się przed podjęciem jakiejś decyzji. Wraz z rosyjską inwazją na Ukrainę teoria szaleńca została przypomniana i ponownie jest stosowana do wyjaśniania coraz bardziej nieobliczalnego zachowania rosyjskiego prezydenta Władimira Putina, który 27 lutego 2022 r. nakazał swojemu ministrowi obrony i szefowi sztabu generalnego zainicjowanie specjalnych zadań bojowych przez jednostki odstraszania nuklearnego. Takie zachowanie Putina przywodzi na myśl to, co zostało opisane w polityce zagranicznej jako teoria szaleńca – poczucie, że ktoś jest zdolny do wszystkiego, jeśli nie może doprowadzić wojny do końca tak, jak chce.

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