Ethnic heterogeneity as a potential target of active measures of Russia: Identification of vulnerabilities of Polish-Ukrainian relations

Różnorodność etniczna jako potencjalny cel oddziaływania środków aktywnych Rosji. Identyfikacja podatności relacji polsko-ukraińskich

ORCID: Jakub Bornio: 0000-0001-7906-7475

Afiliacja: University of Wrocław, Poland

Strony: 27-47

Wydanie: Lublin 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36874/RIESW.2020.3.2

Sposób cytowania: J. Bornio, Ethnic heterogeneity as a potential target of active measures of Russia: Identification of vulnerabilities of Polish-Ukrainian relations, „Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej” 18(2020), z. 3, s. 27-47, DOI: https://doi.org/10.36874/RIESW.2020.3.2.

Słowa kluczowe: , , , ,

Abstrakt: This article raises the issue of how the Russian Federation could benefit from the instrumental use of ethnic heterogeneity to pursue its geopolitical interests. The paper focuses on the recent case of a Polish-Ukrainian historical memory dispute which affected relations between Warsaw and Kyiv. The research focus is on how vulnerable Poland and Ukraine are to Russian active measures which potentially target not only national minorities but also groups of people who are only temporarily present in these states, such as economic migrants and tourists. An analysis is conducted of Russia’s geopolitical objectives and its strategy toward Polish-Ukrainian relations in the broader context of the rivalry between Russia and the West. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the neorealist theory of international relations. The case study of specific events discloses how Russia could exacerbate tensions between nations and the role of ethnic heterogeneity in this regard. Against this backdrop, the author shows how Russia may challenge other states of the Euro-Atlantic community with similar active measures.

Bibliografia:

ABW, Raport z działalności ABW w 2014 r., Warszawa, 2015, www.infolupki.pgi.gov.pl/sites/default/files/czytelnia_pliki/1/raport_2015_int.pdf.

‘Ambasador Ukrainy: to atak na stosunki polsko-ukraińskie’, TVPInfo, 29 March 2017, www.tvp.info/29706800/ambasador-ukrainy-to-atak-na-stosunki-polskoukrainskie.

Balzer, H., ‘The Ukraine Invasion and Public Opinion’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, vol. 16, no. 1, 2015.

Darczewska, J., Żochowski, P., ‘Active measures. Russia’s key export’, CES Point of view, no. 64, June 2017, www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/pw_64_ang_active-measures_net_0.pdf.

Fundacja Batorego, Dyskusja „Wołyń 1943 – granice kompromisu”, 24 October 2016, https://youtu.be/lBpRwW0ZuuM.

Galeotti, M., ‘Controlling Chaos: How Russia Manages Its Political War in Europe’, European Council on Foreign Relations, Policy Brief, no. 228, 2017.

Giles, K. et al., The Russian Challenge, Chatham House, 2015.

Group of Polish-Ukrainian Dialogue, Priorytetowe Partnerstwo. Wspólna wizja stosunków polsko-ukraińskich, Kyiv–Warsaw, 2017, www.batory.org.pl/upload/files/pdf/Priorytetowe_Partnerstwo.pdf.

‘Initsiatorom protestiv na terytoriyi Ukrayiny ye lider orhanizatsiyi “Nazhdak” Dul’s’kyy – SBU’, censor.net, 15 May 2017, www.censor.net.ua/ua/video_news/439844/initsiatorom_protestiv_na_terytoriyi_ukrayiny_ye_lider_organizatsiyi_najdak_dulskyyi_sbu_video.

Jaroszewicz, M., ‘Migration from Ukraine to Poland. The trend stabilises’, CES Report, October 2018, www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/Report_Migration%20from% 20Ukraine_net.pdf.

Juurvee, I., ‘The resurrection of “active measures”: Intelligence services as a part of Russia’s influencing toolbox’, Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis, April 2018, www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Strategic-Analysis-2018-4-Juurvee.pdf.

Karlsen, G.H., ‘Divide and rule: ten lessons about Russian political influence activities in Europe’, Palgrave Communications, vol. 5, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0227-8.

Klimkin, P., Twitter post, 28 March 2017, www.twitter.com/pavloklimkin/status/846976809614934018.

Klimkin, P., Twitter post, 10 December 2017, www.twitter.com/PavloKlimkin/status/939838129896349696.

Knight, B., ‘AfD worker accused of ordering arson attack in Ukraine’, Deutche Welle, 15 January 2019, www.dw.com/en/afd-worker-accused-of-ordering-arson-attack-in-ukraine/a-47093618.

‘Konferencja prasowa Prezydentów Polski i Ukrainy’, prezydent.pl, 31 August 2019, https://youtu.be/T6cvUCvrR20.

Kost, P., ‘Zamach w Łucku: Dlaczego Rosja skutecznie psuje relacje polsko-ukraińskie?’, Defence24, 30 March 2017, www.defence24.pl/zamach-w-lucku-dlaczego-rosja-skutecznie-psuje-relacje-polsko-ukrainskie-3-czynniki.

Kowal, P., Testament Prometeusza. Źródła polityki wschodniej III Rzeczypospolitej, Warszawa–Wojnowice, 2018.

Krekó, P. et al., The Weaponization of Culture: Kremlin’s Traditional Agenda and the Export of Values to Central Europe, Political Capital Institute, 4 August 2016, www.politicalcapital.hu/wpcontent/uploads/PC_reactionary_values_CEE_20160727.pdf.

‘Kremlin financing Polish radicals: tasks, payments, and reporting to Moscow’, informnapalm.org, 18 March 2017, www.informnapalm.org/en/kremlin-financing-polish-radicals-tasks-payments-reporting-moscow/.

Larrabee, F.S. et al., Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis. European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures, RAND 2017, www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1305.html.

Lavryshyn, J., ‘Perekryttya dorohy L’viv – Rava-Rus’ka rozsliduyut’ yak rozpalyuvannya mizhnatsional’noyi vorozhnechi’, zaxid.net, 29 March 2017, www.zaxid.net/perekrittya_dorogi_lviv__ravaruska_rozsliduyut_ yak_rozpalyuvannya_mizhnatsionalnoyi_vorozhnechi_n1421918.

Law on Defence, FEDERAL’NYY ZAKON Ob oborone, 1996.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Komunikat MSZ w sprawie incydentu z udziałem polskiego autokaru pod Lwowem, 10 December 2017, www.msz.gov.pl/pl/aktualnosci/wiadomosci/komunikat_msz_w_sprawie_incydentu_z_udzialem_polskiego_autokaru_pod_lwowem.

‘More attacks on Polish WWII memorials in Ukraine’, Polish Press Agency, 13 March 2017, www.archiwum.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/297575.

Motyka, G., ‘Nieustający polsko-ukraiński spór o historię’, Sprawy Międzynarodowe, no. 1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.35757/sm.2018.71.1.03.

‘MVD razoblachilo OPG, prichastnuyu k vzryvam u posol’stv, oskverneniyu sinagogi v Umani i drugim rezonansnym prestupleniyam’, 112.ua, 2 October 2017, www.112.ua/glavnye-novosti/oskvernenie-sinagog-i-vzryvy-u-posolstv-razoblachena-gruppirovka-torpedy-prichastnaya-k-razzhiganiyu-ksenofobii-i-mezhdunarodnym-konfliktam-413995.html.

‘Napisy na polskim konsulacie we Lwowie. „Kolejna prowokacja”’, TVPInfo, 8 February 2017, www.tvp.info/28985710/napisy-na-polskim-konsulacie-we-lwowie-kolejna-prowokacja.

Osadchuk, B., Ukraina, Polska, świat, Sejny, 2010.

Panchyhyn, I., ‘Aktsiyu u Hryadi orhanizuvaly prychetni do obstrilu pol’s’koho konsul’stva u Luts’ku’, zaxid.net, 29 March 2017, www.zaxid.net/aktsiyu_u_ gryadi_organizuvali_prichetni_do_obstrilu_polskogo_konsulstva_u_lutsku_n1421965.

‘Poroshenko: Vid superechky pol’s’koho ta ukrayins’koho narodiv vyhraye lyshe tretiy’, Ukrayins’ka Pravda, 8 July 2018, www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/07/8/7185669/.

President of the Republic of Poland, President of Ukraine, Wspólne oświadczenie prezydentów Polski i Ukrainy o porozumieniu i pojednaniu obu narodów, Kyiv, 21 May 1997, www.pwin.pl/Publikacje/biu3_151.pdf.

President of the Russian Federation, Voyennaya doktrina Rossiyskoy Federatsii, 25 December 2014.

Putin, V., ‘Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation’, kremlin.ru, 25 April 2005, www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931.

Report: Ukrainian minority and migrants from Ukraine in Poland Discourse analysis, ed. P. Tyma, Ukrainians’ Union in Poland, Warsaw 2018, www.prostir.pl/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Ukrainian_minority_and_migrants_from_Ukraine_in_Poland_Discourse_analysis.pdf.

Revunova, I., ‘U l’vivs’kiy politsiyi rozpovily podrobytsi zatrymannya avtobusa z antyukrayins’kymy plakatami;, zaxid.net, 13 March 2017, www.zaxid.net/u_lvivskiy_politsiyi_rozpovili_podrobitsi_ zatrimannya_avtobusa_z_antiukrayinskimi_plakatami_n1420388.

Rey, M. L., ‘Na wojnie z kłamstwem’, Nowa Europa Wschodnia, vol. 6, 2017.

Sejm RP, Uchwała Sejmu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej z dnia 22 lipca 2016 r. w sprawie oddania hołdu ofiarom ludobójstwa dokonanego przez nacjonalistów ukraińskich na obywatelach II Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w latach 1943–1945, Warszawa, M.P. 2016, poz. 726.

State Statistic Committee of Ukraine, All-Ukrainian population census 2001, www.2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/results/general/nationality.

State Statistic Service of Ukraine, Foreign citizens who visited Ukraine in 2017, www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/tyr/tyr_e/vig2017_e.htm.

Statistics Poland, National Census of Population and Housing 2011, www.stat.gov.pl/spisy-powszechne/nsp-2011/.

Strokan, M., Taylor ,B., ‘Intelligence’, in: Routledge Handbook of Russian Foreign Policy, ed. A.P. Tsygankov, Routledge, 2018, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315536934-11.

The Prosecutor’s Office, ‘Na L’vivshchyni na 3 roky i 6 misyatsiv pozbavlennya voli zasudyly ostann’oho iz orhanizatoriv perekryttya trasy “L’viv-Rava-Rus’ka”’, 9 January 2019, www.lviv.gp.gov.ua/ua/news.html?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=243226.

Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961.

Woidelko, G., ‘The Polish-Ukrainian Battle for the Past’, Carnegie Europe, 15 December 2017, www.carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/75029.

‘Za provokatsiyeyu na L’vivshchyni stoyat’ rosiys’ki spetssluzhby – SBU’, galinfo.com.ua, 29 March 2017, www.galinfo.com.ua/news/za_provokatsiieyu_na_lvivshchyni_stoyat_rosiyski_spetssluzhby__andreychuk_256139.html.

Słowa kluczowe: , , , ,